V dnevnih pregledih blagovnih borz se tolažimo, da cene nafte kljub vojni v Iranu in selektivni odprtosti Hormuške ožine še niso ponorele. Toda pri tem običajno spregledamo, da na borzi vidimo terminske cene nafte za dobave čez 1, 2 ali 3 mesece (in več), ne pa cen za tekoče dobave. No, cene za fizične (takojšnje) dobave so za približno tretjino višje od terminskih cen (učinek backwardation). Denimo, danes je terminska cena Brent nafte za dobave v maju znapala okrog 108, cena za takojšnje dobave pa 141 $/sodeček.

Razlog je seveda v tem, da je z vojno v Iranu prišlo do efektivnega izpada 13 do 14 % globalne ponudbe nafte, kar poskušajo distributerji nadoknaditi z nakupi rezervnih količin, ki še obstajajo. Toda te rezerve so se v štirih tednih spraznile, kar se kaže v porastu cene ruske nafte (Urals), ki je celo presegla ceno severnomorske nafte (Brent) in v zapiranju škarij med rotterdamsko in singapursko blagovno borzo. In to seveda pomeni, da bodo kmalu tudi terminske cene nafte za dobave čez 1 mesec (in več) poskočile.

Spodaj je dober opis tega, kaj se dogaja na naftnem trgu in opozorilo na situacijo v času Covida. Takrat smo imel inverzno situacijo, da je povpraševanje po nafti kolapsnilo za 20 % za obdobje enega leta, nakar po Covidnem odpiranju spomladi 2021, ko je povpraševanje po nafti spet poskočilo, ponudba ni uspela dohajati povpraševanja. Cene nafte so ponorele, hkrati s tem pa tudi inflacija.

Jeff Currie of Carlyle went on live television and said the oil market is completely mispriced.

He said futures price crude at around $100 a barrel, but physical oil delivered to Asian refiners is actually costing between $130 and $170.

At one point this month, Oman crude, the benchmark for oil on the free side of the Strait spiked all the way to $173 a barrel.

The paper market and the real world have completely split from each other and Currie was explicit about why that split is dangerous.

He said jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel in Singapore last week, then the same spike hit Rotterdam at $220 a barrel, then Thailand, then the Philippines, then New Zealand, then Australia.

He called it molecular contagion, a physical shortage virus spreading across global supply hubs one by one.

To understand why that phrase matters, consider what the Strait of Hormuz actually is.

Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through that single 100-mile waterway.

The IEA now says flows have dropped from 20 million barrels per day to what they described as a trickle and Barclays estimates the effective supply loss at 13 to 14 million barrels per day in a prolonged closure scenario.

Currie said there are no more spare barrels in the system.

The price spread between Singapore and Rotterdam which normally tells traders where surplus oil is sitting has completely disappeared and when that spread goes to zero, there is no buffer left anywhere on earth.

He said this supply shock is nearly equal in size to the COVID demand crash, and he reminded viewers what COVID did to global supply chains.

COVID wiped out approximately 20 million barrels per day of demand and fractured supply chains for two full years.

This war has now wiped out a comparable volume of supply and supply chains cannot work from home.

The data behind his warning is already visible.

Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia have collapsed from roughly 19 million barrels per day in February to under 7 million barrels per day in March.

Dubai crude surged past $166 a barrel on March 19, hitting an all-time record and Oman crude crossed $150 for the first time in history just days before.

Meanwhile, Chevron’s CEO and Shell’s CEO both stood up at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and confirmed the same thing Currie said, physical disruptions are now spreading from South Asia into Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and are beginning to reach Europe.

Currie said the reason WTI and Brent paper prices stayed suppressed is that Russian Urals crude rallied 65 to 70 dollars a barrel after sanctions were lifted.

That closed the gap between cheap Russian oil and expensive Western benchmarks.

Once that gap closed, the last pressure valve in the global system shut off and now the entire complex has nowhere to hide.