Scenarij 3 se zdi najbolj realističen. 

V nobenem scenariju pa ni omenjena usoda Izraela. Izraelske oblasti bi se v tem trenutku morale najbolj bati za eksistenco njihove države.

To predict what will happen, let’s start by ruling out a few scenarios:

1. We are unlikely to see the use of nuclear weapons. First, Israel is unlikely to use them; the U.S. wouldn’t allow it, and more importantly, nukes wouldn’t completely eliminate Iran. Instead, it would risk a counter-strike from Iranian nuclear weapons (which they likely already possess). As for Iran, they won’t be the first to use them. There’s simply no need. We can likely rule out this worst-case, unpredictable risk.
2. The U.S. will not launch a large-scale war on Iranian mainland. They simply can’t afford it.
3. The U.S. will not retreat just yet. Many are anticipating a TACO, but taco now is meaningless. A true “TACO” would mean handing control of the Strait of Hormuz over to Iran—a “Grand TACO,” if you will. It’s too early to give up.
4. Israel will not back down. Stopping now would mean all previous efforts were in vain; they won’t get another chance.
5. As long as there is no regime change, Iran will not back down either. As I’ve discussed before, since they’ve already played their biggest card—Hormuz—they won’t fold easily. Folding means certain death for top IRGC people; staying in the game at least offers a chance at survival.

Once we exclude these five possibilities and establish these constraints, the path forward becomes relatively clear.

First, the U.S. will likely engage in island-seizing operations, hoping to control the situation through small-scale, high-leverage ground combat.

From there, three possibilities emerge:

• Scenario 1: The battle goes smoothly and concludes in days. Iran is forced to the negotiating table, or regime change occurs. The U.S. quickly gains control of the situation.
• Scenario 2: The fighting is grueling and protracted, but the U.S. eventually secures the objective and stabilizes the situation.
• Scenario 3: The fighting is exceptionally difficult. The U.S. either fails to take the objective or takes it but finds it impossible to defend, eventually forcing a withdrawal. This would complete the “Grand TACO.” Trump would shrug his shoulders and take the exit, claiming the battle was simply unwinnable.

Aside from Scenario 1, both Scenarios 2 and 3 would inflict massive pain on the global economic order.

I personally think scenario 3 is the most likely.