Tudi Goldman Sachs in International Energy Agency potrjujeta, kar sem tudi že sam pisal pred dvema tednoma, da bo sedanji naftni šok največji v zgodovini – večji kot kombinacija šokov 1979 in 2022. Tudi če bi jutri dobili mirovni sporazum med ZDA in Iranom ter odprtje Hormuške ožine, bi trajalo še najmanj 3-4 mesece, preden bi se naftni trg spet normaliziral. In cene nafte naj bi ostale povišane  – na ravni okrog 80 $/sodček do 2029 (za 20 $/sodček oziroma za eno tretjino višje kot pred vojno).

Goldman Sachs just called it (putting their best spin on it). The largest oil supply shock in the history of the global crude market. Not 1990, not even 1973. This one! Persian Gulf exports have collapsed to roughly 3% of normal flows at Hormuz (and you can’t distort physical supply for long). Goldman’s own numbers put the production hit at 17 million barrels per day at peak and they’re saying it won’t recover fast even after/if the strait reopens.

Brent forecast for March/April: $110 (too low but they have to sell you hope in a barrel that ain’t coming). Worst case if disruptions run past 60 days: past $147 the all-time record set in 2008, never touched since. PCE inflation revised up to 2.9% by year-end. GDP growth revised to free fall. The Fed can’t cut into this. Rate hikes are being priced back in.

And Goldman said something else that nobody’s putting on the front page: even when the war ends, even if the strait fully reopens tomorrow, it will take at least four months for energy markets to return to anything resembling normal. The shock has permanently repriced the risk premium on Persian Gulf supply. We’re past the point of war disruption and into structural reset.

Now look at the chart again. Goldman’s “new forecast” curve doesn’t go back to $60. It doesn’t go back to $70. It plateaus at $80 and stays there through 2029. They’re telling you, in the language of investment banks trying to calm their clients — which is to say, quietly and with caveats that the pre-war world is gone. No kidding and you can look at Saudi Arabia forecasting $200 oil by end of April as meshing a little closer to reality.

The IEA’s Fatih Birol wasn’t quiet about it. He said Monday in Canberra this is worse than the 1973 and 1979 oil crises combined, plus the 2022 gas shock after Ukraine, all put together!

Trump’s 5 day fake news pause on power plant strikes in Iran moved Brent down 11% in a session. Someone positioned for that drop. Someone also positioned for the $2 trillion S&P surge at 7:04am on fake peace talk headlines Iran categorically denied an hour later. The volatility isn’t organic chaos. It has a shape and it has beneficiaries, we call the Epstein elite, profiting off insider trading shorting Brent before Trump delivered his fake news about negotiations with Iran, which Iran denied and later answered kinetically with missle wave 77-78.

And so the strait of Hormuz stays closed to Western buyers. Iran’s  waves keep coming. And Goldman just told you this doesn’t resolve in a news cycle. Welcome to the brave new world of oil going to the moon and not back. Brought to you by the Epstein coalition.