Skozi Hormuško ožino se ne pretaka samo 20 % svetovne ponudbe nafte, pač Hormuška ožina predstavlja tudi transportno pot za 20 % trgovine z LNG, 25–33 % umetnega gnojila, 30–38 % svetovne ponudbe helija, okoli 24 % globalne proizvodnje žvepla (ključnega za žvepleno kislino), 8–9 % svetovne proizvodnje aluminija ter znaten delež drugih ključnih surovin in kemikalij. Ključna vpliva zaprtja bodo na eni strani cene goriv in posledična inflacija in recesija (zaradi zmanjšanja proizvodnje in zaradi dviga obrestnih mer s strani centralnih bank), na drugi strani pa cene hrane, saj bo zmanjkalo za eno četrtino do ene tretjine umetnih gnojil prav v času setve.

Ob tem je treba upoštevati še pomem žveplene kisline za procesiranje ključnih materialov za sodobne tehnologije (kobalt, nikelj, baker itd.) in pomen helija v proizvodnji polprevodnikov in optičnih vlakenj. Nekajmesečna zapora Hormuza lahko povzroči podoben šok kot zaprtje v času Covida.

Nič dobrega se ne obeta. Glejte spodaj komentar glede vpliva na kmetijstvo in proizvodnjo hrane.

Hours ago, Trump went on Fox News to announce he is calling European allies and regional governments to form a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Hours later, Germany said no.

“As long as this war continues, there will be no participation, not even in any effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military means.”

That is the German government spokesperson. On the record. Today.

This is the moment the market’s quick-resolution thesis died.

Think about what just happened. The United States asked the largest economy in Europe, the country that received the most American support during the Russian energy crisis, the NATO ally that benefits most from Gulf energy transits, to help reopen a 21-mile waterway carrying one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade and a fifth of world oil.

Germany said it has nothing to do with NATO. And walked away.

Japan already declined. Australia already declined. The US Navy confirmed on March 12 it is not ready for escorts. Minesweeping assets were retired in 2025. Trump is demanding roughly seven countries send warships. The number of confirmed commitments as of this evening: zero.

Now do the math on the calendar.

Even if a coalition somehow materializes next week, minesweeping a 21-mile corridor saturated with Iranian mines and drone threats under active fire takes weeks of operational preparation. Then escorts must begin. Then insurance must recalibrate. Solvency II capital buffers depleted by 26 months of Red Sea losses do not rebuild in days. Reinsurance treaties must be renegotiated. Individual vessels must be re-underwritten. The Red Sea precedent is 26 months old and premiums never returned to pre-crisis levels.

The Corn Belt needs nitrogen by mid-April. India needs Kharif prep by May. Australia needs urea by June.

Do you see the problem.

The coalition timeline is measured in months. The planting window is measured in weeks. These two clocks do not intersect. The food the world eats in late 2026 is being decided right now by soil chemistry, not by which foreign minister picks up Trump’s phone call.

Nearly 49% of globally traded urea is tied to conflict-exposed Gulf exporters. Transit has collapsed 97%. Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories during its primary rice season. India formally asked China for emergency urea. China responded by banning phosphate exports through August. Egypt is bleeding foreign reserves to feed 69 million people on bread subsidies priced for a world that no longer exists. 318 million people were at crisis-level hunger before any of this started.

Germany’s GDP will take a 0.2 to 0.4 percentage point hit from the energy shock alone. TTF gas is up 45 to 60 percent since the closure. And Berlin just told Washington it will not lift a finger to fix it. The country that shut down its nuclear plants, became dependent on imported gas, and now refuses to help secure the strait through which that gas flows. The irony writes itself. The consequences do not.

The $20 billion DFC reinsurance backstop with Chubb has zero confirmed fertilizer vessel utilization. Insurance compensates for financial loss. It does not sweep mines that Germany will not help clear.

Every hour that passes without escorts is another hour closer to the planting deadline. Every ally that declines is another month added to the normalization timeline. Every month added is another harvest lost on the steep side of the quadratic yield curve where the world’s poorest farmers operate.

Germany’s rejection is not a diplomatic footnote. It is the confirmation signal that the molecules stay trapped through spring.

The planting window does not care about your coalition politics.

It is closing.