Včerajšnji članek iz platforme Francisa Fukuyame. Naslov je njihov. Članek ima v nadaljevanju le dve večji napaki. Prvič, Budimpeštanski sporazum Ukrajini ni vzel jedrske zaščite, ker je bila Ukrajina zgolj lansirna rampa za ruske jedrske rakete, kontroler je bil v ruskih rokah. Podobno velja danes za Belorusijo. In drugič, Severna Koreja – za razliko od Izraela – nikogar ne napada. Že 75 let. 

In 2003, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi agreed to dismantle his nascent nuclear weapons program in exchange for the West’s promises of sanctions relief and integration into the international community. Less than a decade later, in 2011, he found himself hiding in a drainage pipe with his golden pistol after NATO forces bombed his convoy. Gaddafi was dragged out of that tunnel by NATO-backed Libyan rebels, beaten, and executed for the world to see.

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un was taking notes. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the West treated Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il, as a comic book villain: a cognac sipping madman who reportedly claimed to have invented the hamburger and shot 38 under par on his first ever round of golf. The madman narrative about the safari suit-wearing cult leader was comfortable for the West: it allowed them to dismiss him as a relic of the past, a man stuck in time with a starving population destined to depose him.

That comfort is now gone when it comes to North Korea, and with it comes an indictment of the entire rules-based international order. The Kim dynasty has been vindicated—not morally, not ethically, but strategically. As the global security architecture of the post-Cold War era fractures under the weight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s expansionist ambitions, and America’s reckless and illegal international military interventions, the Kims’ absolute refusal to denuclearize looks more and more sensible by the day.

Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein attempted to follow the nuclear approach, but his nascent program was systematically dismantled by foreign strikes and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He was left exposed when America invaded in 2003 and was killed in 2006. Gaddafi surrendered his weapons in 2003 and was killed in 2011. In 1994, Kyiv signed the Budapest Memorandum, surrendering the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. In 2014, it lost Crimea when Russia illegally annexed the region. Since 2022, it has been fighting a war for its existence—one that continues today without any signs of ending.

Iran, too, agreed to stall its nuclear program in 2015, then three years later the United States pulled out from the agreement, later bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, and is now brazenly conducting a regime change war. Nicolás Maduro never had nuclear weapons; he is likely wondering, from his jail cell in New York, how things would have gone if he did. Perhaps his successors in Caracas are thinking about whether they could get them now. Cuba knows they must be next—what will they do to ensure their own sovereignty?

This is not to oversimplify things; North Korea is the outlier here. Most nuclear aspirants never make it past the window of vulnerability—the period where nuclear capabilities are advanced enough to provoke intervention, but insufficient as a credible deterrent. The two main pathways to a nuclear weapon—thousands of centrifuges spinning at supersonic speeds or spent nuclear fuel reprocessing—provide little concealment. The large industrial footprint is nearly impossible to hide from modern thermal and satellite surveillance. And once the bomb is complete, aspirants face a second immense technical challenge: miniaturizing it and mastering the delivery vehicle.

Great powers are strongly incentivized to preemptively strike these nascent programs politically, economically, and kinetically. The great tragedy of the 21st century is that Pyongyang’s success has shown that, while the cost of trying to acquire a nuclear weapon is high, the cost of failure, as seen in Baghdad, Tripoli, and Kyiv, is existential.

Kim Jong Un is living proof, untouched despite a raft of sanctions, a starving population, and increased U.S.-Japan-South Korea unity against his country’s aggression.

Vir: Shahn Louis