John Mearsheimer:

On 25 February 2026, I appeared on Glenn Diesen’s podcast to talk about whether the US is likely to attack Iran, especially in light of his State of the Union address the previous evening (February 24). I made the argument that one could read Trump’s address to signal that he is moving away from attacking Iran. Of course, one cannot be confident that is the case, but his rhetoric certainly pushes in that direction.

Trump emphasized in his talk that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, but that he has yet to hear these “secret words” from Iran: “we will never have a nuclear weapon.”

The Iranian Foreign Minister, however, said just before Trump’s address that “Our fundamental convictions are crystal clear: Iran will under no circumstances ever develop nuclear weapons.” That statement should satisfy Trump’s demand.

It is important to note that Trump did not demand that Iran give up its: 1) nuclear enrichment capability; 2) ballistic missiles; 3) support for Hamas. Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Those non-demands certainly facilitate a deal.

And then there is the broader context. First, every country in the world except for Israel is pushing Trump not to attack Iran, including America’s Gulf allies who usually have adversarial relations with Iran. Second General Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has effectively told Trump that there is no good military option and if he attacks he runs the risk of getting into a protracted war the US cannot win. Third, his political advisors are telling him not go to war. Trump is already in deep trouble in the polls and there is a real danger that the Democrats will take both houses of Congress in the November elections. A failed war in Iran will just make a dangerous situation worse.

There are only two major actors pushing for war against Iran: Israel and its extraordinarily powerful lobby in the US. They may succeed in pushing Trump to start a war, in which case this will be another war for Israel.