The U.S.-Israeli gamble relies on a bombing campaign to trigger an uprising.

It seems the American and Israeli strategy is to bet on waves of airstrikes designed to make the Iranian regime appear weak enough to embolden opposition forces to revolt. They appear to be applying the ‘Libya playbook’ to Iran, expecting the same results.

However, there are five reasons why such a strategy is highly unlikely to succeed in Iran:

1-Financial and Internal Stability:

Libya had $150 billion in assets frozen, struggled to pay salaries, and faced various tribal leaders vying for power.

2-Technological Disparity:

Libya’s air defenses and radars dated back to the 70s and early 80s, with equipment over 30 years old and unmodernized, much like their T-54/55 tank fleet.

3-Manpower:

Iran’s official forces total nearly one million men, not counting tens of thousands who could be mobilized from abroad, including the Houthis. In contrast, opposition fighters barely reach 2,500, and urban cells only possess small arms.

4-Technological Power:

Unlike Libya, Iran has become a technological powerhouse. Very few countries produce and launch their own satellites using indigenous rockets; Iran is part of that elite group. Furthermore, while the Western nations lack short, medium, and intermediate-range hypersonic missiles, Iran possesses them.

Their mastery of multi-stage technology also makes the transition to ICBMs a non-issue.

Long range anti-Ship missiles? Iran, Russia and china are leaders at this field.

5-Naval and Geographic Defensibility: Libya’s navy consisted of mere patrol boats, not even 1% of Iran’s fleet, which boasts between 1,600 and 2,000 missile tubes. Geographically, Libya is flat with no natural cover, and 90% of its population lives in coastal cities. Iran, conversely, is mountainous, with a heavily fortified capital.

I see no armed contingent capable of a successful uprising.

Instead, the situation is more likely to evolve into a ‘Syria scenario’ rather than a Libya one, characterized by progressive destruction and multiple internal guerrilla fronts supported by U.S. and Israeli airpower.

That is the truly plausible outcome if an attack occurs.