The weekend has passed without a U.S. attack on Iran.

Trump would have probably liked to strike if there had been a decent chance of a short, successful war. But there was and is none. Iran would retaliate sharply for any attack and set the region on fire.

A early sharp strike would have been Trump’s best chance of success. The longer he is deterred from a strike the smaller the likelihood that any attack will occur at all.

Trump now needs to find a way to chicken out from his grandiose threats to Iran. He has sent out feelers for negotiations:

The Trump administration has told Iran through multiple channels that it’s open to meeting to negotiate a deal, a senior U.S. official tells Axios.
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Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are working to organize a meeting between White House envoy Steve Witkoff and senior Iranian officials in Ankara later this week, two regional sources tell Axios.

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The likely outcome: Trump will have to lift some sanctions and, in exchange, will get some limited nuclear agreement with Iran. I assume that it will be softer on Iran than the JCPOA agreement which had been signed under Obama only to be trashed later by Trump.

The other demands on Iran which the Israelis had made through Trump: – no enrichment, a curb on the number and range of its ballistic missiles, an end of support for militia in the region – will not be part of the negotiations.

Those points are not of interest for Trump. He wants and needs an agreement – any agreement – that can be sold to the public has his personal success. The details will matter less to him than the fact that an agreement was made.

Israel will not like this. It wants Iran to be destroyed as a potential regional leader. Israel itself is too weak to defeat Iran. It may well try false flag strikes or terrorism to get the U.S. to finally do what it wants.

But the U.S. is no longer the all powerful force in the Arab region that it had been 30 years ago. It is lacking the means to defend its ships and bases against attacks by ballistic missiles and drones. This while Iran has systematically build up such  weapons and forces.

Iran has also gained allies. Russian and Chinese help had allowed it to disable the Starlink network that was used to control recent rioters in its streets.

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Trump needs a victory. A war on Iran is unlikely to bring one. A new agreement that can be claimed to curb Iran’s non- existent nuclear weapons can be sold as one. For now Trump seems to have decided to try that route.

Vir: Moon of Alabama