Greenland is shaping up to be another masterclass in self-fulfilling prophecy and stunningly incompetent Western foreign policy. That’s the sequence:

1) Trump says he wants to annex it because otherwise “Russia or China will take over Greenland”, which is entirely bullshit (see https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2009851485191033127?s=20).

2) Trump says Greenland needs to be “in the hands of the UNITED STATES” because “NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent – Not even close!” (https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2011476193732645080?s=20). Which is also objectively bullshit given that the U.S. is in NATO… Unless he implies article 5 is now null and void.

3) In response, to nominally convince Trump that Greenland can be defended from Russia and China (when it obviously needs to be defended from the U.S., the only ones who actually issued threats of annexation), the ever pliant and meek EU leaders have started “Operation Arctic Endurance.” The goal being to “establish a more permanent military presence” there (https://theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jan/15/european-nations-troops-greenland-trump-europe-live?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6968b50f8f08be34df8b17a8#block-6968b50f8f08be34df8b17a8).

4) And now Russia is saying that it is “seriously concerned” about the heightened NATO military presence in Greenland. Which is honestly fair: additional NATO deployment on their northern border is objectively a security concern for them.

The end result is this sad irony: Greenland is now a legitimate point of Russian-NATO tension where none existed before Trump started his threats of annexation.

By responding to a fictional Russian danger with actual NATO military buildup, NATO leaders have created the very security concern they claimed to be addressing.

It’s almost impressively incompetent. Or maybe deliberately manufactured, which is just as bad.