Zgodovinske vzporednice so očitne. Bertrand opozarja na presenetljive vzporednice med današnjim razhajanjem ZDA in Evrope ter sino-sovjetskim razkolom v 60. letih: tako kot je Hruščov z doktrino »miroljubnega soobstoja« in osredotočanjem na notranji razvoj sprožil obtožbe revizionizma s strani Kitajske, danes Trumpova usmeritev v dogovor z Rusijo, zaščito ameriške domovine in preoblikovanje rivalstva s Kitajsko v predvsem ekonomsko tekmovanje povzroča, da Evropa – kot mlajši partner – ZDA dojema kot »revizionistične«. Izjave nemškega kanclerja o koncu »Pax Americana« simbolizirajo zgodovinski prelom v transatlantskih odnosih, pri čemer je ironija v tem, da je vojna v Ukrajini, sprožena tudi zaradi širjenja zahodnega zavezništva, zdaj eden ključnih dejavnikov njegove erozije.

Bertrand to interpretira kot »ameriški Hruščevov moment« in odpira vprašanje, ali se bo – podobno kot po Hruščovu z Dengom na Kitajskem – pojavil akter, ki bo to novo obdobje pragmatično konsolidiral in mu dal dolgoročno stabilno obliko.

Torej če je Trump ameriški Hruščev, kdo bo evropski Deng?

I’m really struck by the similarities between what we’re witnessing in Europe-US relations and the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s.

The Sino-Soviet split also occurred due to an ideological fracture whereby, after Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization and embrace of “peaceful coexistence” with the West, China (the Soviets’ junior partner at the time) accused the Soviets of being “revisionist traitors”.

Khrushchev pursued “peaceful coexistence” in large part to avoid military confrontation and redirect resources toward the Soviet world: his (somewhat deluded) promise to “catch up and overtake” the West economically.

Eerily similar here: “peaceful coexistence” is quite literally what Trump is now saying he wants to achieve with Russia, his latest National Security Strategy (NSS) prioritizes the US homeland and the Western hemisphere, and it redefines the competition with China as primarily economic rather than military (the very title of the China chapter in the NSS is “Win the Economic Future, Prevent Military Confrontation”, almost verbatim Khrushchev).

And Europeans, the junior partners, now explicitly view the U.S. as “revisionists”. Listen to Merz 👇 who’s now saying that “Pax Americana” is over, “no longer exists” and that there’s no point being nostalgic about it because “it is how it is.”

There’s no overstating just how extraordinary it is for a German chancellor, and all the more a CDU chancellor (traditionally the most pro-US party), to say this and frame US-Europe relations as fundamentally adversarial.

It’s incredibly ironic when you think about it. The war in Ukraine, at its heart, flared up because of the expansion of the transatlantic alliance. And it’s now ending up destroying it.

I spent the last week analyzing in (probably way too much) depth the U.S.’s new National Security Strategy, how much it differs from previous NSS documents (the answer is: radically!), the root causes behind this immense shift and what it all means for Europe, China, and the world generally.

The result is entitled “America’s Khrushchev moment“

The key question to ask is, if Trump is Khrushchev, who can be Deng?