Avtor članka v Foreign Policy je nekdanji zunanji minister Litve, kar samo govori o tem, v kakšnem paralelnem svetu, popolnoma ločenem od realnosti, živi del evropske politike. Na drugi strani pa tudi, s kako slabimi analitiki imamo opravka. Če evropska politika operira s tovrstnimi “analizami”, potem je seveda absolutno jasno, zakaj je EU danes na tem stranskem tiru, na katerem se je znašla.

Why China Cannot Play “Kissinger” With Europe, using Russia to peel Europe from the US

The recent Foreign Policy article suggests Beijing missed a “Kissinger moment” by siding with Moscow instead of prying Europe away from Washington. This framing reflects a persistent Western illusion: that China can treat Russia as a disposable pawn in a balance-of-power game. In reality, China’s partnership with Russia is not a tactical choice but a structural necessity dictated by geography, resources, and the future of Eurasian integration.

Geography Matters: America vs. China

The United States enjoys the luxury of two oceans and two meek neighbors. This insulation allows Washington to gamble abroad without fear of destabilizing its homeland. China, by contrast, shares a vast border with Russia — a nuclear power and resource giant. Undermining Russia would destabilize China’s northern frontier, invite insecurity along thousands of kilometers of border, and expose Beijing to encirclement by the U.S. and its allies. For China, Russia is not a distant chess piece but a neighbor whose stability is inseparable from its own.

Russia as China’s Strategic Lifeline

Russia provides China with discounted energy, minerals, and food security. These flows are not optional luxuries; they are the backbone of China’s resilience against Western sanctions and maritime blockades. Severing ties with Moscow would force China to rely on sea lanes dominated by the U.S. Navy, leaving Beijing vulnerable to coercion. In addition, Russia’s Arctic coastline grants China access to the Northern Sea Route — a strategic corridor that shortens shipping to Europe and bypasses U.S.-controlled chokepoints. No Kissinger-style maneuver could compensate for the loss of this lifeline.

Europe’s Structural Dependence

The article assumes Europe is ripe for a geopolitical divorce from Washington. Yet Europe has surrendered strategic autonomy by outsourcing security to NATO. Beijing understands that Europe cannot act independently, no matter how desperate it is for peace in Ukraine. Attempting to “flip” Europe would be a futile distraction from the real project: building a multipolar Eurasia anchored by Russia and China.

Multipolarity, Not Opportunism

China’s choice to align with Russia is not a missed opportunity but a rational commitment to multipolarity. The West’s obsession with isolating Moscow only accelerates Eurasian integration. By deepening ties with Russia, China secures its borders, resources, and strategic corridors while laying the foundation for a Eurasian order that diminishes Western dominance.

Conclusion

The Foreign Policy narrative of a “missed Kissinger moment” misunderstands the structural realities of Eurasia. China cannot treat Russia as expendable because Russia is indispensable to its security, prosperity, and strategic future. The West clings to Cold War analogies, but the world has changed: multipolarity is not a choice, it is an inevitability.