Craig Tindale je v nedavno objavljenem vrhunskem članku analiziral temeljni strukturni premik v globalnem gospodarstvu, ki ga označuje kot »vrnitev materije«. V ospredje se vrača fizična materialna baza gospodarstva – rudarjenje, predelava, taljenje in rafinacija – ki je bila v zadnjih desetletjih v zahodnih gospodarstvih sistematično zapostavljena v korist finančnih storitev, intelektualne lastnine in programske opreme. Predpostavka o neomejeni dostopnosti surovin prek globalnih trgov se je izkazala za strateško zmotno. 

Spodaj je povzetek članka, pred tem pa štiri uvodni odstavki, ki zadenejo v srčiko naše zahodne teoretske zablode  in zablode ekonomskih politik v zadnjih desetletjih. 

The global industrial system is currently navigating a profound structural bifurcation, a phenomenon best described as the “Return of Matter.” For the past three decades, Western economies have operated under the tacit Neoclassical assumption that control over intellectual property, financial instruments, and software code constitutes the apex of value creation. In this worldview, the physical processes of industrialism, the dirty, energy-intensive work of mining, refining, smelting, and alloying, were viewed as commoditised, low-margin utilities that could be outsourced to low-cost jurisdictions without strategic peril.

The post-Cold War era was defined by the assumption of “infinite materiality”: the deeply held economic belief that, with sufficient capital and open trade routes, any physical resource could be procured in the necessary quantities, at any time, from a friction-free global market. This paradigm facilitated the rise of the “Just-in-Time” logistics model, which ruthlessly optimised supply chains for financial efficiency, stripping out inventory buffers and redundancy at the expense of systemic resilience. As of late 2025, this era of assumed abundance has definitively concluded. We have entered an era of complex constraints, where the physical availability of matter, not the availability of credit, sets the limit on national power.

The trigger for this crisis was (and still is) policy, a decades-long triumph of a specific worldview. Rooted in the comparative advantage theories of David Ricardo and the monetary theories of Milton Friedman, and later codified in the Washington Consensus, this ideology modelled nations as frictionless points on a trade diagram rather than political actors with distinct security interests and potential enemies. It prescribed a rigorous division of labour: the West should specialise in high-margin “thinking” (services, IP design, complex finance) while offshoring the “dirty” work of “doing” (smelting, refining, processing) to the lowest bidder.

Deepened by the naivety of economic rationalism and the “End of History” optimism of the 1990s, the West adopted a financial system that effectively disarmed its security. Inside that intellectual frame, dismantling the domestic material productive economy looked rational, efficient, and profitable. In the real world of power politics, geography, and supply shocks, it was a slow-motion act of strategic self-harm that hollowed out the industrial base required to sustain a conflict or a protracted crisis.

Dolgotrajno prevladujoča predpostavka zahodnih gospodarstev, da je mogoče fizične vire in industrijske procese obravnavati kot vedno dostopne dobrine, se izkazuje za strateško napačno. Finančna moč, intelektualna lastnina in programska oprema ne morejo nadomestiti fizičnih zmogljivosti rudarjenja, rafiniranja in predelave surovin. Meja nacionalne moči se ponovno vzpostavlja tam, kjer se stikajo energija, materiali in industrijska infrastruktura.

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Čemu se potem v EU histerično militariziramo, strašimo ljudi, stotine milijard dajemo za orožje namesto za razvoj in pošiljamo stotine milijard evrov v Ukrajino, če pa analize ameriških obveščevalnih agencij, po besedah Tulsi Gabbard, direktorice National Intelligence, kažejo, da Rusija ni sposobna niti zavzeti Ukrajine, kaj šele napasti Evrope?

No, this is a lie and propaganda @Reuters is willingly pushing on behalf of warmongers who want to undermine President Trump’s tireless efforts to end this bloody war that has resulted in more than a million casualties on both sides.

Dangerously, you are promoting this false narrative to block President Trump’s peace effort, and fomenting hysteria and fear among the people to get them to support the escalation of war, which is what NATO and the EU really want in order to pull the United States military directly into war with Russia.

The truth is the US intelligence community has briefed policymakers, including the Democrat HPSCI member quoted by Reuters, that US Intelligence assesses that Russia seeks to avoid a larger war with NATO. It also assesses that, as the last few years have shown, Russia’s battlefield performance indicates it does not currently have the capability to conquer and occupy all of Ukraine, let alone Europe.

Jebemti, je to stara pesem. Iz onih naših časov. Najbrž največji hit Leb i sol. Preden je Vlatko postal pripoznan kot glasbeni virtuoz….

V enem stavku: Vodstvo EU in ključni evropski politiki so se ves čas zavedali, da ne morejo zapleniti ruskih sredstev in na njihovi osnovi organizirati posojila Ukrajini, vendar so igrali to igro, da bi kot “manjše zlo” spravili skozi sicer politično nesprejemljivo skupno zadolžitev EU in mutualizacijo novega skupnega med članicami EU.

Teorija zarote?

No, madžarski, slovaški in češki predsedniki vlad niso padli na finto. Naš pa je.

The core idea was never really to confiscate the frozen Russian assets. From the very beginning, Brussels knew that this option was legally unworkable on a large scale, due to international pressure, the systemic risk to the legal security of sovereign assets, and the precedent it would set for third countries.

The narrative around “confiscation” served a different purpose: to deliberately confuse European public opinion and create a false political dilemma. Either one accepted confiscation — presented as morally necessary but legally fragile — or one accepted, as the “lesser evil”, the mutualisation of debt through a large loan backed by the EU budget.

What matters is that this mutualisation was never allowed during the financial crisis that hit Spain, Greece, and other southern European countries. At that time, the response was austerity, conditional bailouts, and the transfer of costs onto the weakest states, under the banner of “fiscal responsibility” and an outright rejection of eurobonds.

Today, by contrast, a de facto mutualisation of risk has been imposed — not to stabilise European economies in distress, but to finance an external war, shifting the risk directly onto EU taxpayers.

The contrast is striking:

when the problem was internal, mutualisation was impossible;

when the objective is geopolitical, it suddenly becomes acceptable and urgent.

From this perspective, the debate over Russian assets was instrumental, not substantive. It was used to prepare the political and emotional ground for approving a measure that, in any other context, would have been unthinkable within the European Union.

The strategy did not change.

 The narrative did — to achieve the same outcome.

Madžarski predsednik vlade Viktor Orban je razkril bistvo perverzne logike tega vojnega posojila EU iz skupne malhe Ukrajini. S podelitvijo vojnega kredita, imajo države EU interes za podaljšanje vojne in ustvarjanje iluzije, da Ukrajina lahko zmaga. Imajo interes za podaljšanje vojne do eluzivnega “končnega poraza Rusije”, ko bi bila Rusija kot poraženska prisiljena sprejeti vse pogoje in pristati na reparacije Ukrajini, iz katerih bi nato Ukrajina odplačala to evropsko posojilo. Pogoji posojila namreč predvidevajo ničelne obresti in poplačilo šele po koncu vojne na osnovi ruskih reparacij. Države EU imajo zato interes za podaljševanje vojne v neskončnost, sicer izgubijo teh 90 milijard evrov.

Glede na to, da Rusija po nobeni teoriji ne more izgubiti te vojne, bodo EU države naredile vse, da zminirajo mirovni proces. Da se izognejo finančni izgubi. Perverzna logika, vendar tako je. In Orban je svojo državo zaščitil pred tem, da pokrije to posojilo, ki ga Ukrajina seveda nikoli ne b mogla vrniti. Tudi slovaški in češki predsednik vlade sta naredila enako.

Kaj je naredil naš predsednik vlade na evropskem vrhu? Implicitno je povečal slovenski javni dolg za dobrih 700 mio evrov, kolikor bo odpadlo na Slovenijo od tega neodplačljivega posojila Ukrajini.

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For the first time in the history of the European Union, 24 member states have jointly granted a war loan to a country outside the Union. This is not a technical detail but a qualitative shift. The logic of a loan is clear: whoever lends money wants it back. In this case, repayment is not tied to economic growth or stabilisation, but to military victory.

For this money to ever be recovered, Russia would have to be defeated. That is not the logic of peace but the logic of war. A war loan inevitably makes its financiers interested in the continuation and escalation of the conflict, because defeat would also mean a financial loss. From this moment on, we are no longer talking merely about political or moral decisions, but about hard financial constraints that push Europe in one direction: into war.

The Brusselian war logic is therefore intensifying. It is not slowing down, not easing, but becoming institutionalised. The risk today is greater than ever before, because the continuation of the war is now coupled with a financial interest.

Hungary is deliberately not stepping onto this dangerous path. We do not take part in initiatives that make participants interested in prolonging the war. We are not looking for a fast track into war, but for an exit towards peace. This is not isolationism, but strategic sobriety. This is in Hungary’s interest and, in the long run, in Europe’s interest as well.

Bitka za prevlado v UI ni v čipih, ampak v teravatih kapacitet in teravatnih urah energije na voljo za uporabo umetne inteligence. In v ceni te energije. Zmagala bo država, ki bo zagotovila dovolj velike kapacitete za stabilno in stanovitno proizvodnjo elektrike ter hkrati najnižje cene elektrike. Podatkovnih centrov se ne da poganjati na solarne panele in baterije, ker je proizvodnja elektrike nestanovitna, njena cena pa bistveno previsoka. Zato se podatkovni centri selijo v bližino jedrskih elektrarn, trije največji ameriški ponudniki (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) pa investirajo v jedrske elektrarne.

Vendar bodo to bitko zmagali kitajski ponudniki. KItajska je v zadnjih 15 letih izgradila več kapacitet za proizvodnjo elektrike kot ves preostali svet skupaj. Kitajska gradi 30 novih jedrskih elektrarn, ZDA nobene. Podatkovni centri na Kitajskem plačujejo 3 cente za kilovatno uro, v Ameriki pa 3-krat več.

In seveda, več kot očitno je, da je Evropa že zdavnaj odpadla iz te igre za umetno inteligenco. Na solarne panele in vetrrnice in po ceni 30 centov na kilovatno uro ne moreš poganjati podatkovnih centrov.

Zelena norost je v Evropi ubila ne samo tradicionalno industrijo, pač pa preprečuje tudi razvoj in razmah industrij prihodnosti. Pritožbe pošljite političnim elitam, ki vodijo Evropo v propad.

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Spodaj je nekaj fragmentov izidov včerajšnjega dnevno-nočnega dogajanja v Bruslju. Tisti, ki pišejo vzhičene komentarje (nemški kancler Merz in vodstvo EU) imajo dobre razloge za to – kamuflirati morajo včerajšnji popolni poraz in dejstvo, da so zpravno vprašljivo odločitvijo za skupno financiranje ukrajinske luknje obsodili EU na počasno finančno smrt. EU bo edini financer Ukrajine v naslednjih letih, Ukrajina ne more vrniti niti evra in EU bo prisiljena ukrajinsko proračunsko luknjo financirati v nedogled (50 milijard evrov na leto) ali pa jo poslati v stečaj. Vsako leto bo dobra četrtina proračuna EU šla v Ukrajino. To je finančno nevzdržno za EU in bo bodisi finančno bodisi politično razgnalo EU.

Seveda pa je to bolje kot evropski in globalni finančni sistem takoj poslati v spiralo navzdol z nezakonito zaplembo tujih monetarnih rezerv (nekaj, česar si ZDA niso nikoli drznile niti v 45 letih najostrejših sankcij proti Iranu).

Če bi se namesto tega lotili diplomacije z namenom končati vojno, bi bil finančni račun bistveno nižji in evropsko gospodarstvo bi dobilo pospešek z anagažiranjem pri obnovi Ukrajine.

Zato Slava EU! 

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Zadnje čas je svet poln neumnih izjav, toda tale izjava Marja Lepa, predstojnika Centra za raziskave mobilnosti, je zmagovalna. Po tej logiki ne bi smeli nikoli, ne prej, ne zdaj in ne v prihodnje, izgraditi nobene prometnice, kajti to bi lahko omogočilo, da lahko ljudje pobegnejo iz revščine. Kajti po slabši prometni povezavi niso mogli pobegniti, ali pa ne v takšnem obsegu.

Alan Ford v najbolj žlahtni obliki.