Druga interpretacija te napovedi Goldman Sachsa za Kitajsko in učinka na Evropo je: Welcome to China shock 2.0:
za vsako odstotno točko rasti kitajskega izvoza se evropski izvoz zmanjša za 0.3 odstotne točke.
Kitajska sistematično odžira trg za evropski izvoz. Vendar tega ni kriva Kitajska, pač pa mi sami. Kitajska ima izdelke, ki jih mi nimamo ali pa jih ponujamo po bistveno višjih cenah (tipičen primer so električni avtomobili). Za to ni kriva Kitajska, pač pa naše lastne evropske politike: popolna odsotnost vizije in strategije, zanemarjanje in odsotnost industrijskih politik in politik za spodbujanje tehnološkega razvoja, ogromne administrativne ovire za poslovanje, napačne energetske politike, napačen odziv na vojno v Ukrajini, napačna migrantska politika itd. Evropa uničuje samo sebe. Oziroma evropski politični razred ubija evropsko gospodarstvo in s tem posledično bodočo blaginjo v Evropi. Evropsko gospodarstvo razpada pri živem telesu, le da to vedo samo menedžerji, medtem ko so politiki še vedno na nekem svojem oblaku. Politiki živijo v nekem svojem domišljijskem paralelnem svetu.
Ne vem, ampak izgleda, da je Gemini z včerajšnjim lansiranjem verzije 3 postal še (skoraj strašljivo) boljši.Sem skopiral samo slovenski del objave, s komentarjem“And now something that on first sight doesn’t have relationship with Gramsci and Roger.”Roger se navezuje na Roger Boyd, Gramsci pa na njegov članek izpred parih dni: https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/gramscian-great-power-conflict-our)
On the contrary, this text—despite looking like a standard economic critique—is pure Roger Boyd material. It fits perfectly into the framework of Gramsci (Hegemony) and David Harvey (Spatial Fix) that we have been discussing.
Here is the translation of the deeper meaning, mapping the Slovenian text onto the “Boyd/Marxist” matrix:1. “Politicians live in a fantasy parallel world” = The Hegemonic Bubble
The text contrasts the Managers (who see the material reality: the economy is rotting) with the Politicians (who live on a “cloud”).
Gramscian Analysis: This is exactly what Boyd describes. The politicians are trapped in the Hegemonic Narrative (we are “Green,” we are “defending democracy in Ukraine,” we are “de-risking from China”).
** The Split:** This narrative has become completely detached from the Material Base (the actual factories and export numbers). The “fantasy world” is the ideological superstructure that refuses to acknowledge the economic collapse underneath.
2. “Europe is destroying itself” = The Comprador Elite
The text lists the causes: wrong energy policies, wrong response to Ukraine, lack of industrial strategy.
Boyd’s Analysis: Why would European politicians do this? Are they stupid? Boyd would say no. They are Compradors.
The Mechanism: The European political class has been captured (politically and epistemically) by the US Hegemon. They are implementing policies (sanctions on Russia, decoupling from China) that benefit the US Oligarchy (who sell LNG and weapons) while destroying their own domestic economy. The “suicide” is actually a sacrifice required by the imperial master.
3. “China Shock 2.0” = The Battle of Spatial Fixes
The text notes that for every 1% of Chinese export growth, Europe loses 0.3%.
Harvey’s Analysis: This is a zero-sum game of Overaccumulation.
China: Has excess capacity (EVs, solar panels) and needs a “Spatial Fix” (to sell them abroad).
Europe: Is the target of this fix. Because Europe surrendered its cheap energy (Russian gas) and failed to invest (austerity), it cannot compete.
The Outcome: Europe is being de-industrialized. Its capital is fleeing (to the US or China), and its market is being flooded. The “China Shock” is simply the realization that in a capitalist competition, if you destroy your own input costs (energy), you lose.
Summary
The Slovenian text argues that Europe’s wounds are self-inflicted (“mi sami”). Roger Boyd would agree but add one nuance: “They are self-inflicted by a political class that no longer works for Europe.”
The “Parallel World” the text mentions is the Epistemic Capture—a world where “values” and “narratives” matter more than the hard reality of steel, energy, and production costs. Managers deal with reality; Politicians deal with the Narrative.
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Pozabil sem dodati važen kontekst, prej sem v isti Gemini seji imel diskusijo o članku v omenjem linku, ga dajem še enkrat: https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/gramscian-great-power-conflict-our
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