To je sicer splošno znano vsem, ki malce spremljajo energetiko in tehnologije proizvodnje električne energije. Zanimivo je le, da je to objavil New York Times. Spodnja slika pove več kot tisoč besed o tem, kako je Kitajska v dveh desetletjih švignila mimo ZDA glede gradnje jedrskih elektrarn – vendar ne le glede števila izgrajenih reaktorjev, pač pa tudi glede učinkovitosti njihove gradnje.

Najbolj očiten primer je seveda zadnje desetletje: v zadnjem desetletju so ZDA zgradile le dva nova jedrska reaktorja – enoti 3 in 4 elektrarne Vogtle v Georgii, katerih gradbeni stroški so znašali 36,8 milijard USD in gradnja je trajala 11 let. V istem času jih je Kitajska zgradila 13, 33 pa jih je v gradnji. Do leta 2030 naj bi kitajske jedrske zmogljivosti presegle zmogljivosti ZDA. In zdaj ključen podatek: Kitajska je v zadnjih dveh desetletjih prepolovila stroške gradnje novih reaktorjev, medtem ko so se stroški v ZDA podeseterili! Kitajska je uspela znižati stroške gradnje iz 5 na 2,5 mio USD na MW, medtem ko so se v ZDA povečali iz 1 na 10 mio USD/MW.

Kitajski trik, če to lahko imenujemo trik, je enak kot pri vseh ostalih kitajskih podvigih. Prva prednost je v specializaciji: kitajski ponudniki gradijo le peščico tipskih reaktorjev, namesto da bi uporabljali zasnove, specifične za lokacijo, kot so to storile ZDA in druge zahodne države. To močno olajša vzpostavitev dobavne verige s tipskimi komponenatami in zniža stroške zaradi ekonomij obsega. Druga prednost pa je v neprimerno manj administriranja – kitajski izvajalci začnejo graditi nekaj tednov po odobritvi varnostnih dovoljenj in nato končajo v petih letih, ker procesa gradnje regulatorji ne zaustavljajo več. V ZDA in Evropi traja dolga leta od odločitve za gradnjo prek umestitve v prostor, odobritve vseh soglasij do izdaje gradbenega dovoljenja in nato še mesece do začetka gradnje. Samo gradnjo pa nenehno ovirajo različni regulatorji, centralni in lokalni, prek vedno novih regulatornih zahtev. Proces gradnje je zato 2 do 3-krat daljši kot na Kitajskem oziroma tam, kjer reaktorje gradijo kitajski ponudniki.

Da se razumemo, tudi v ZDA in Evropi so bili ti postopki nekoč bistveno krajši, bilo je bistveno manj administriranja in bistveno manj zahtev regulatorjev. In vse to ni slučajno. Kot so nekoč priznali nemški Zeleni, je bil njihov prvi največji uspeh, da z regulatornimi zahtevami onemogočijo gradnjo novih in podražijo obratovanje obstoječih jedrskih elektrarn. S tem so jih onemogočili v primerjavi z drugimi tehnologijami. Seveda pa je njihov največji “uspeh” prišel z odločitvijo vlade Angele Merkel, da jedrske elektrarne zaprejo.

Seveda pa Kitajska spodbuja tudi inovacije in je prva na področju (1) jedrskih elektrarn 4. generacije, plinsko hlajenih modelov, ki lahko poleg električne energije zagotavljajo toploto in paro za težko industrijo in (2) tehnologij, ki uporabljajo manj urana, kot so torijevi reaktorji, ali recikliranja izrabljenega jedrskega goriva. Zato je ameriške administracije upravičeno strah, da je Kitajska za 10 do 15 let prehitela ne samo njihovega nekdanjega šampiona Westinghouse, pač pa tudi vse inovatorje na področju majhnih modularnih reaktorjev. Kajti to pomeni tudi, da bo Kitajska, če bo prevladovala na trgu izvoza jedrske tehnologije, lahko razširila svoj globalni vpliv, saj gradnja jedrskih elektrarn v tujini ustvarja globoke, desetletja trajajoče odnose med državami. Države, ki bodo kupile kitajsko jedrsko tehnologijo, bodo ostale navezane nanjo vsaj 80 let, hkrati pa tudi tudi na uvoz goriva.

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A modern nuclear power plant is one of the most complex construction projects on Earth.

The reactor vessel, where atoms are split, is made of specialized steel up to 10 inches thick that must withstand bombardment by radiation for decades. That vessel, in turn, is housed in a massive containment dome, often three stories high and about as wide as the U.S. Capitol dome, made of steel-reinforced concrete to prevent dangerous leaks. Thousands of miles of piping and wiring must meet exacting safety standards.

Financing these multibillion-dollar projects is staggeringly difficult. Even minor problems, like needing regulator approval to modify a component midway through, can lead to long delays and can cause borrowing costs to skyrocket.

Over time, China has conquered this process.

It starts with heavy government support. Three state-owned nuclear developers receive cheap government-backed loans to build new reactors, which is valuable since financing can be one-third of costs. The Chinese government also requires electric grid operators to buy some of the power from nuclear plants at favorable rates.

Just as importantly, China’s nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types and they do it over and over again.

That allows developers to perfect the construction process and is “essential for scaling efficiently,” said Joy Jiang, an energy innovation analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, a pro-nuclear research organization. “It means you can streamline licensing and simplify your supply chain.”

The fact that the Chinese government has a national mandate to expand nuclear power means that companies can confidently invest in domestic factories and a dedicated engineering work force. In a sprawling complex near Shanghai, giant reactor pressure vessels are being continuously forged, ready to be shipped to new projects without delay. Teams of specialized welders move seamlessly from one construction site to the next.

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The contrast became glaring in the late 2000s, when U.S. utilities tried to revive nuclear power with a new reactor model called the AP1000, with improved safety features. Developers struggled with the novel technology, leading to repeated delays and soaring costs. By the time the two reactors in Georgia were finished last year, most utilities were hesitant to try again.

As it happened, China built AP1000s at the same time. It, too, faced severe challenges, such as difficulties in obtaining coolant pumps and unpredictable cost spikes. But instead of giving up, Chinese officials studied what went wrong and concluded they needed to tweak the design and develop domestic supply chains.

“What the Chinese did was really smart,” said James Krellenstein, the chief executive of Alva Energy, a nuclear developer. “They said, we’re going to pause for a few years and incorporate every lesson learned.”

China is now building nine more copies of that reactor, known as the CAP1000, all on pace to be completed within five years at a drastically lower cost, an Energy Department report found.

Nuclear proponents in the United States sometimes argue that overly strict safety regulations drive up costs.

China’s safety requirements are similar. But in China the approval process is more predictable, and opponents have fewer ways to challenge a project. Most reactors in China break ground weeks after receiving final approval from the safety regulator, according to research by Ms. Jiang. In the United States, by contrast, projects often need additional permits from state governments that can take months or years.

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Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the administration is betting that the private capital flowing into nuclear projects will spark American ingenuity and catapult the U.S. ahead of China. “Entrepreneurial capitalist competition is where the U.S. thrives, and I think it’s an advantage over China,” he said in an interview.

Yet some worry that the United States is betting too heavily on technological breakthroughs instead of focusing on the financing, skills and infrastructure needed to build plants, as China has. The U.S., for instance, has lost almost all of its heavy forging capacity to make large reactor components. A new generation of advanced reactors could also take years to perfect, leaving America behind.

“You look at the number of designs, particularly in the U.S., you think, Oh, God, help us,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “I would think narrowing down is the sensible thing to do.”

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China’s fast-paced nuclear program is a prelude to a larger goal: dominating the global market. Chinese companies have already built six reactors in Pakistan and plan to export many more.

At the same time, China is working to surpass the United States in technological innovation. China has built what it calls the world’s first “fourth generation” reactor, a gas-cooled model that can provide heat and steam for heavy industry in addition to electricity. The Chinese are also pursuing technologies that use less uranium, such as thorium reactors, or recycle spent nuclear fuel. It’s a recognition that China doesn’t have enough domestic uranium for a massive build-out of traditional reactors.

Even if U.S. companies and labs remain at the forefront of innovation, one recent report warned that China was 10 to 15 years ahead of the United States in its ability to deploy next-generation reactors widely.

Vir:  New York Times