Včeraj sem bil na enem sestanku, kjer je eden izmed sogovornikov zanosno govoril o stotinah milijard evrov, ki jih in jih bodo kitajska podjetja investirala v Evropo. Toda to je bilo izjemno pretenciozno. Po tem, ko je EU zasegla ruske monetarne rezerve in jih želi trajno zapleniti, po tem, ko je nizozemska vlada čez noč podržavila zasebno podjetje v kitajski lasti in po tem, ko je Evropska komisija napovedala, da bo pogoj za kitajske investitorje v Evropi, da delijo tehnologijo z domačimi subjekti, bo težko prepričala kitajske investitorje, da načrtujejo in izvedejo val investicij v Evropi.

Lahko razumemo, da evropske države to počnejo zaradi pristiska ZDA in zaradi lastnega tehnološkega zaostanka za Kitajsko, toda ko je izgubljena pravna zaščita premoženja in intelektualne lastnine, je konec zaupanja investitorjev. Mednarodne organizacije (Svetovna banka, UNCTAD, OECD) so rabile nekaj desetletij po drugi svetovni vojni, da so postavile mednarodni okvir za zaščito tujih inveticij in mehanizem za reševanje sporov (SPS), zdaj je bil ya okvir v nekaj hitrih potezah porušen. Bi vi investirali svoja sredstva v takšno okolje, kjer vam ob prihodu zaplenijo intelektualno lastnino in kjer vam grozi, da vam lahko kadarkoli zasežejo vaše premoženje? Bi vi investirali v Tunguzijo? No, Evropa je postala Tunguzija.

Poleg tega, če Evropa krade ruske državne rezerve, medtem ko krade kitajska podjetja, ker so ji Američani to naročili, potem Evropa postane neprivlačna za naložbe, evro in funt pa neuporabna. Ne le za Kitajsko in Rusijo, ampak za kogar koli, ki ni ZDA ali ni pod nadzorom ZDA. Pomislite, kaj to pomeni za evropsko blaginjo.

Pot naprej je predvidljiva. Kratkoročno se bo Kitajska seveda maščevala. Pri Nexperii se že je (glejte spodaj) s prepovedjo izvoza matičnega podjetja Nexperie v Evropo. Sledi prepoved izvoza minearlov redke zemlje, kjer utegne biti prva in največja žrtev nizozemski ASML (glavni globalni proizvajalec litografije za proizvodnjo čipov). Nato pa sledi kitajski pritisk na evropska podjetja, ki imajo svoje naložbe v Kitajski. Toda če nas je zgodovina trgovinskih vojn česa naučila, je to, da v trgovinski vojni vsi izgubijo. Glavno izgubo pa občutijo ljudje v obliki izgub služb in zmanjšanja socialnih transferjev.

Washington is demanding European nations take such steps in order to create friction between Europe and China that the Americans hope leads to Europe fully aligning with Washington’s hostility toward Beijing (much as the Ukraine conflict led, over time, with Europe aligning with Washington’s position of hostility toward Moscow).

Having fuelled that conflict between Europe and Russia, which has left Europe even more reliant than previously on American security guarantees, and which has cut off Europe from its only source of gas not under US (direct or indirect) control, Washington now has enormous leverage to achieve such an aim—which Trump does not hesitate to use (because unlike European leaders, he does act in his country’s interest).

Meanwhile, the European political establishment is packed with leaders who were weaned on the teat of American neoliberal unipolarity and were expensively groomed in their political adolescence by the lavishly funded NGO-State-Academy complex (from Soros’s Open Society Foundations, to the Atlantic Council, to Harvard University and USAID/NED-moneyed charities and media operations). Europe’s establishment political leaders thus instinctively believe in Washington’s previous creed of neoliberal universalist Manicheanism and are desperate to facilitate that dream even as, ironically, it is being strangled in Washington itself by the primal force of MAGAism.

Of course, breaking off from China would be devastating for the European economy, especially after a similar break from Russia. But unless Europe can find political leaders able to act in their nation’s self interest, Washington will continue leading Europe by the nose toward America’s self interest.

Washington won’t necessarily say “You! You over there on the other side of the Atlantic! Yes, you! Start acting nasty to Beijing!” Instead, they will force them to take smaller steps, from expropriating Chinese businesses, to tariffs, to trade deals, to leveraging the Ukraine conflict, to sow discord between China and Europe.

Obviously, I should add here for those who indulge in lazy ‘with us or against us’ Sith absolutism that I do not think that Europe should kiss Beijing’s feet. Europe needs to deal with the bilateral trade disbalances. It needs to pursue its own interests, which means hardball. But it ain’t gonna achieve those things by expropriating Chinese companies and imposing controls on tech experts to China at the behest of a rapaciously self interested Washington.

Furthermore, if Europe steals Russian sovereign reserves, while going around stealing Chinese businesses because the Americans told them do, then Europe becomes uninvestible and the euro and sterling become unusable. Not just for China and Russia, but for anybody that is not the US or under US control. Think about what that means for European prosperity.

Vir: Collingwood