A few days ago, at dinner, the discussion turned (as it sometimes does these days) to Ukraine. The debate – because it was a debate – went on for three hours. I found myself, as I often do on this topic, in a small minority. I reproduce the gist of the discussion here, because it’s very rare, in my experience, for the two sides to engage each other directly: each prefers to stick to its own version of the truth. Animated, but restrained, the argument circled round the two poles of Putin and Trump – their personalities, their motives, and, given these, the possibility of peace in Ukraine any time soon. For each of the two protagonists, there is a case for the prosecution and a case for the defence. At two points in the discussion below, I invite the judgment of Adam Smith’s ‘impartial spectator’.

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What is Adam Smith’s ‘impartial spectator’ to make of this? He or she is faced with two seemingly irreconcilable stories. Each side dubs the other side the aggressor; each depicts its own position as defensive, and each can adduce evidence on its behalf.. I know of no way of demonstrating that one narrative is ‘truer’ than the other. We are what our stories make us. But what action one takes in response to others’ stories is a different matter. One can react either prudently or imprudently, sympathetically or contemptuously.

The West’s imprudence was greatest in the years leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in the sense that, basking in its Cold War victory, it was tone deaf to Russian historical memory, and its feeling of humiliation and insecurity. Both George Kennan, author of the Cold War doctrine of ‘containment’, and Henry Kissinger, Nixon’s Secretary of State, warned against NATO’s eastward enlargement. These were counsels of present prudence to guard against future vengeance. The Kyiv government under Poroshenko and later Zelensky also behaved imprudently, by provoking Russian ire, internationally and domestically, in the apparent belief that the West would be able and willing to deter the Russians from military intervention.

However, prudence is not enough for durable peace: it may mean nothing more than looking for a better moment to strike. A more permanent accord requires paying attention to the other’s story. This at least makes a conversation possible. The political West has treated the Russian story either as a pack of lies invented by Putin or, at best, as a retrograde view of international relations involving obsolete ideas like empires, client states, and buffers. By insisting that the Russian invasion was ‘unprovoked’, the official West was showing itself heedless of the provocation it was causing.

On the other side, Russian policy was also highly imprudent. Putin started his war with inadequate forces for victory, and oblivious to further consequences. Begun to stop the further enlargement of NATO, it led to Sweden and Finland, two long-standing neutral states, joining NATO to protect themselves against Russia. And it is hard even for a sympathetic spectator to judge the invasion itself sympathetically. The provocation Putin complained of was never sufficient to warrant breaching Article 51 of the UN Charter. Whatever its genuine security concerns, Russia was never in danger of imminent attack either from Ukraine or NATO, nor were the Russian minorities on Ukraine threatened with genocide. And there is little to be said for the way the Russians have actually conducted their ‘special operation’.

In short, the impartial spectator might conclude that the Ukraine war was a conflict between two legitimate views: Ukraine’s claim to self-determination versus Russia’s claim to a security buffer. Superior statesmanship on both sides would have sought a modus vivendi between the two. This statesmanship was not forthcoming. Joint acceptance of responsibility for the tragedy, says the impartial spectator, is a necessary prerequisite for ending the conflict.

II.

This brings us to Donald Trump. President Trump has had a dreadful press from the mainstream Western media for his efforts to end the war. He is not given credit for trying; rather, he is routinely lumped together with Putin and other dictators as a destroyer of the ‘rules-based international order’.

The chief prosecution charge centres on his refusal to accept Russia’s culpability for starting the war. This has fatally compromised the hitherto united NATO support for Ukraine in resisting the Russian assault. Trump has shown himself willing to force on Ukraine peace terms that would, in effect, destroy its independence. In trying for a deal with Russia ‘over the heads ’ of both Vlodymir Zelensky and NATO’s European leaders he has driven a wedge between the American and European flanks of NATO. Ukraine – and Europe – can no longer rely on the United States to underwrite their defence against Russian attacks.

Besotted by Putin and/or by his own role as peacemaker, Trump has failed to realise that Putin is unappeasable. History tells us that appeasement of dictators simply makes them more voracious. If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, he will not stop there. He has already ‘invaded’ Georgia: Moldova, the Baltic States, and even Poland are in the firing line. A success for Putin in Ukraine will encourage China to attack Taiwan. Russia is not simply trying to recreate its defensive shield; it is intent on restoring its former world power, as witness the activities of the so-called Wagner brigades in Africa, and the covert attempts of Russian state agencies and proxies to destabilise Western politics through forms of cyber warfare.. On this premise, the only prudent course is to keep Ukraine fighting, till Russia is exhausted, or Putin overthrown, whatever the cost to Ukraine. The cost – in treasure it not in lives – can be made good in the future by forcing the defeated Russian aggressor to pay reparations.

Faced with a US President who is virtually a Putin dupe, the task of the Europeans, therefore, is to block American efforts to secure a peace on Russian terms. Not only must any ceasefire be patrolled by troops of NATO countries stationed in Ukraine, (the so-called (‘coalition of the willing’); but permanent peace must provide Ukraine with guarantees equivalent to NATO’s own Article 5. Territorial questions are for the Ukrainians, not the Americans, to decide.

European NATO leaders no longer talk of a Ukrainian victory, rather of ratcheting up their military and economic support for Ukraine sufficiently to deprive Putin of the victory he hopes for by stringing out negotiations with Trump.

So much for the prosecution. The starting point of the defence must be that Trump is the first Western leader to have sought peace in Ukraine by talking directly to Putin. Jettisoning the doctrine of the unprovoked attack has opened the door to a dialogue: you don’t parley with a war criminal.

In starting peace talks, Trump has exposed the hollowness of Western posturing. This has amounted to keeping Ukraine in the fight at enormous cost in Ukrainian blood without supporting it sufficiently to drive out the Russian invader. Prolonging the war will not improve Ukraine’s position: indeed longer the war continues, the worse the Ukrainian position will become. Neither President Biden nor the European leaders have been willing to risk a nuclear war by giving Ukraine the powerful offensive weapons it needs (and continually asks for) to inflict serious damage on Russia itself.

Given these ‘facts on the ground’, a compromise peace now is the only way of quickly ending the war on reasonable terms for Ukraine itself. This is irrespective of who caused it. Trump has recognised this, but no European leaders have done so. Instead, they have done everything to sabotage the peace negotiations by, on the one hand, offering Nato ‘boots on the ground’ to patrol any ceasefire (which they know the Russians will not accept) and, on the other, by promising Ukraine war-winning weaponry (which they will never supply, or at least supply in time to make a difference).

So what is Adam Smith’s ‘impartial observer’ to make of these different stories about Donald Trump? The conclusion that stands out is that NATO’s European leaders – Rutte. Macron, Mertz, Starmer, et al – have no coherent alternative to Trump’s search for peace. They offer no prospect of a Ukrainian victory, only the continuation of a war likely to end in a Ukrainian defeat. They have neither the guts to take the fight directly to the Russians, nor the clarity to understand that a quick end to the fighting offers the best outcome for Ukraine itself. The Finnish analogy of 1939-40, when Finland won its true independence from Russia, even at the cost of conceding some of its territory, has escaped them and Zelensky.

Vir: Robert Skidelsky