Ameriški predsednik Donald Trump in zahodni mediji so slabo prenesli, kar se v prejšnjih dneh dogajalo v kitajskem Tianjinu (na srečanju Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)). Trump je celo sarkastično pošiljal pozdrave voditeljem treh največjih nezahodnih držav (Kitajske, Indije in Rusije), ker da so se zbrali, da bi naredili zaroto proti ZDA. No, v SCO to delajo že četrt stoletja (od 2001 naprej) in to javno vsako leto. Zahodne medije pa uradno rečeno moti srečevanje avtoritarnih šefov držav. Kot pravi Arnaud Bertrand, je ta nervoza na zahodu podobna nervozi zahodnih industrialcev v začetku 20. stoletja, ko so se delavci organizirali v sindikalnem boju za svoje minimalne pravice proti kapitalu. Ali nervozi zahodnih držav v začetku 1950-in 1960-ih ob procesih osvobajanja koloniziranih držav izpod kolonialne vladavine zahodnih držav saj je to rušilo njihov idealni svetovni red nadvlade.

Kar države v razvoju (t.i. Globalni Jug) hočejo, je mogoče najbolje zaobjeti v enem stavku: 

»Trudimo se organizirati predvidljiv mednarodni red, kjer lahko države trgujejo, se razvijajo in sodelujejo, ne da bi se soočale z vojno vsakič, ko se njihove politike razlikujejo od zahodnih pričakovanj.«

Torej dobrih 160 držav, ki ne spadajo v zahodno sfero, hoče predvsem  možnost enakopravnega sodelovanja, brez pridiganja in moraliziranja in brez izsiljevanja s strani zahodnih držav in brez groženj s sankcijami, če imajo drugačne vrednote, kot so si jih zamislili v nekaj zahodnih državah. Za razliko od procesov osamosvajanja kolonij v 1950-in 1960-ih letih je v tem, da države v razvoju danes imajo alternativo, ki jim omogoča točno to – gospodarsko sodelovanje in ugodno financiranje gradnje infrastrukture brez moraliziranja, brez izsiljevanj in brez posiljevanj s kulturnimi vzorci, ki so tuji v nezahodnih državah. Bertrand temu pravi “moralna slepota” zahodnih držav.

Alternativo imajo v Kitajski. Imajo jo v BRICS+, imajo jo v SCO, imajo jo v Belt & Road Initiative in imajo jo v Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. In v vseh štirih procesih, ki potekajo že skoraj eno četrtletje, je vodilna Kitajska. Kitajska postopno, sistematično, korak za korakom, ustvarja paralelno globalno ureditev, ki bo neodvisna od ZDA in EU. Ki bo lahko delovala navkljub nasprotovanju in – v skrajnem primeru – sankcijam zahodnih držav. Predpogoj za to je tehnološka, gospodarska in vojaška neodvisnost in sama velikost sidra tega sistema. In Kitajska se je razvila v največje možno sidro globalne ureditve. Kitajska je postala največji trgovinski partner velike večine držav. Postala je največje gospodarstvo na svetu. Postala je največja vojaška sila na svetu. In postala je tehnološko najmočnejša država na svetu.

Zato nervoza v zahodnih državah. Nervoza je zaradi izgube dosedanje globalne dominacije zahodnih držav in v naslednjem koraku samega dosedanjega pomena teh držav. Kdo še potrebuje ZDA, kdo še potrebuje Francijo, kdo še potrebuje Nemčijo…., če pa lahko večkratnik njihovega pomena dobi v Kitajski. In če lahko v Kitajski dobi predvsem stabilno sidro brez moraliziranja. In ko se na to sidro navežejo druge največje države sveta – Indija, Kitajska, Brazilija, Iran, Indonezija, Južna Afrika…, dobi to sidro povsem drugo geopolitično težo.

Nervoza zahodnih držav je na mestu. Toda prepozna vsaj za 20 let. Tega geoekonomskega in geopolitičnega prestrukturiranja se ne da več ustaviti.

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Here are Xi Jinping’s concluding words to the speech he just gave in front of Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and some 24 other heads of states representing almost half the world’s population: “Where will prevails, no boundary holds” (basically the Chinese version of “when there’s a will, there’s a way”).

This couldn’t be a better summary of what just transpired at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin.

Some rather condescending Western media, like Sky News, describe it as a meeting of an “axis of upheaval” seeking to bring chaos to the world. It very much feels like what one probably used to read in some media outlets in the early 20th century, when newspapers owned by industrialists characterized striking workers demanding basic rights as dangerous agitators. Or when some European newspapers in the 1950s and 60s described independence movements as destabilizing forces bringing chaos to “civilized” colonial administration.

Unbelievable but true: people eventually stop accepting systems that are designed to exploit them, or to otherwise take advantage of them. That’s not them seeking “upheaval” or “chaos”, it’s simply them doing what any rational actor does when existing arrangements consistently work against their interests.

That’s the source of the “will” that Xi Jinping references: it’s not an axis of “upheaval” but a meeting of minds between very different countries that are fed up to live in a world where they’re expected to follow ever-changing arbitrary rules decided according to the interests of a handful of Western capitals, Washington first and foremost. And the SCO is them trying to find a way.

As a matter of fact, when one reads the various documents and speeches made at the SCO summit, their aspirations are anything BUT upheaval. What they’re rather trying to organize is an end to the very upheaval they argue the West has been sowing for decades through unilateral military interventions, economic sanctions, regime change operations, and the weaponization of just about anything against countries that refuse to subordinate their sovereignty.

If you were asked to describe in one sentence the principal objective deriving from the documents, it would be: “We’re trying to organize a predictable international order where countries can trade, develop, and cooperate without facing warfare every time their policies diverge from Western expectations.”

They have a point: who in their right mind could be looking at the past 30 years and not conclude that the principal agents of chaos have been precisely those powers that lecture others about stability while leaving a trail of failed states from Libya to Afghanistan in their wake? Heck, as I write these lines those same powers are facilitating an atrocious genocide in Gaza and are imposing thousands of unilateral sanctions specifically designed to hurt hundreds of millions of civilians in countries like Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea or Russia.

One needs to suffer from an extremely severe case of Western exceptionalism and moral blindness to believe that bombing Belgrade, Baghdad, Tripoli, Gaza, Damascus, Beirut and Tehran somehow upholds “order,” while countries meeting in Tianjin to discuss multilateral governance constitutes a threat to it. I believe there’s a biblical passage about precisely this, something around having a beam in one’s eye while hunting for specks in others’ (Matthew 7:3-5)…

Don’t take my word for all this – let’s go through the key speeches and documents from Tianjin in details…

Vir: Arnaud Bertrand