Trump in zahodni politiki dajejo Ukrajini prazne obljube. Zgolj besede brez mesa. Obljube, ki jih ne morejo uresničiti.

Trump deceived again: Europe has big problems sending Patriots to Ukraine  The Patriot SAM from Germany for Ukraine will be ready only in 6-8 months, Bild writes citing a source in the German government.  Initially, it was planned that Washington would transfer air defense systems to Ukraine from its own reserves, and Germany would pay for their replenishment. However, Trump stated that the US Army cannot give up a single unit. Europe must provide air defense from its own arsenals.

Thus, the publication writes, paying for weapons for Ukraine is not enough. Europe must dismantle its own stockpiles and order replacements from the American defense industry. At the same time, Europe is short of air defense. Closed negotiations have been going on for several days about who can help Ukraine.

Currently, according to Bild, a decision is being formed: Switzerland is moving back in the queue for Patriot systems. The first unit will be sent not to Bern, but to Ukraine – at Germany’s expense. But the system is still being finalized by the American company Raytheon and will be ready no earlier than in 6-8 months.

Vir: Simplicius

Tudi zato se je Ukrajini začelo muditi z nadaljevanjem prekinjenih pogajanj z Rusijo. Rusiji pa ne tako zelo. Prvič, ker se Ukrajina ne more nadejati nobene resne pomoči od zahodnih držav v doglednem času (resnici na ljubo ji tudi Patriot protizračni sistemi niso mogli pomagati doslej in ji ne morejo nič bolj pomagati v prihodnje, boljšega napadalnega orožja ne bo dobila in četudi bi ga dobila, ne bi imela uspsobljenih vojakov za upravljanje z njimi). Zahodne države nimajo s čim pomagati Ukrajini, razen da začnejo neposredno vojno z Rusijo. Tega pa si ne upajo tvegati. Ker so pač ruske rakete bistveno hitrejše od zahodnih. In drugič, ker je Ukrajina danes v najslabšem pogajalskem položaju v zadnjih treh letih in pol. Jutri bo še v slabšem. In kot sem v zadnjih letih napisal že neštetokrat – z vsakim dnem vojne je pogajalski položaj Ukrajine slabši in Ukrajina manjša.

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Zelensky says he has proposed a new round of talks with Moscow next week. Earlier, he told his newly appointed head of Security Council, Rustem Umerov, to intensify peace talks.

He is now backed up by Trump’s 50-day ultimatum and EU’s new sanctions, which – as a very questionable theory goes – could pressure Putin into conceding on something tangible, like the size of Ukraine’s army.

But the ultimatum sounds weak and hard to implement and so are the sanctions. Some vague threats about hitting Moscow have been aired, then taken back. But everyone knows what risks this kind of escalation entails.

Meanwhile, chances for changing the dynamics on the frontline in Ukraine’s favour are close to zero.

Rather, the Russians are close to completing the encirclement of Pokrovsk agglomeration. The fall of Pokrovsk may cause domino effect in the Ukraine-controlled part of Donetsk region, because it allows the Russians to start enveloping north Donetsk agglomeration from the west, moving through the rural parts of the region, not densely urbanised area as during the last two years.

Putin has exactly no incentives at the moment to offer any tangible concessions regarding Ukraine’s security guarantees. A miracle should happen that will make him change his mind – and the risk with this kind of miracles is nuclear apocalypse.

As ever since at least Milley’s window in Nov ‘22, Ukraine finds itself in the worst negotiating position ever during this conflict. But after the fall of Pokrovsk, it will only get worse. Zelensky should thank the chickenhawk war cheerleading crowd in the West and personal friends like Boris J for being cornered like that.

Vir: Leonid Ragozin