Donald Trump je povedal in napovedal marsikaj. In potem povsem povozil stare napovedi z novimi. Preveč za naštevanje, zato se je treba lotiti samo najnovejših, in še to samo tistih, ki se zdijo, da bodo imele resne implikacije. Prva izmed njih je napoved univerzalnih carin proti celemu svetu v začetku aprila, nato njihova hibernacija za 90 dni in napoved da bo roku 90 dni z 90 državami dosegel nove trgovinske sporazume. Nato se je hvalil, da ga voditelji držav kličejo za začetek pogajanj. 90 dni je minilo in Trumpa nihče ni poklical. No, skoraj nihče. Z dvema državama (V. Britanija in Vietnam) je bil dosežen nekakšen sporazum. V resnici na ljubo skice sporazumov. Ki pa sta tako slabi, da bi bilo bolje, če ju ne bi bilo.

Toda Trumpa to ne moti. Hvali se, da je zelo uspešen pri sklepanju trgovinskih sporazumov, kar naj bi se po njegvem izražalo v rekordnem gibanju tečajev na ameriških borzah – za razliko od poloma v začetku aprila. No, kot pravi John Cassidy v New Yorkerju, je pravi razlog za rekordne tečaje povsem drugačen – borzni špekulanti namreč stavijo na to, da Trump itak zgolj blefira in da bo spet izvedel svoj TACO —Trump always chickens out. In Trump je državam dal nov ultimat glede datuma, do katerega morajo urediti trgovinske zadeve z ZDA. To je do 1. avgusta. Pri čemer ta datum “naj ne bi bil 100-odstoten”. TACO.

The White House’s tariffs have been well received, Donald Trump told Kristen Welker, of NBC News, last week, adding that the stock market had just hit a new high. Trump was right about the market, but he didn’t mention why investors were bidding up the S. & P. 500 and Nasdaq to unprecedented levels despite his threats, yet again, to impose punitive tariffs of up to fifty per cent on goods imported from all over the world: they don’t believe he’ll ever go through with it. Or, as the acronym that has become an article of faith on Wall Street goes, “TACO”—Trump always chickens out.

After Trump first announced his global tariffs with great fanfare, in the Rose Garden, on April 2nd, the value of stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar plummeted. Within a week, he announced a three-month pause on his most punitive levies, which ranged up to fifty per cent. Trump’s adviser Peter Navarro said the Administration would use the ninety-day extension to make ninety new trade deals. When the period came to an end last week, just two deals had been reached—with the U.K. and Vietnam—and those were only rough outlines. Rather than let the tariffs kick in, Trump postponed them again, this time to August 1st. He also told reporters that this new deadline may be “not one-hundred-per-cent firm.” TACO, TACO, TACO. That, at least, is Wall Street’s take.

Vir: John Cassidy, New Yorker

Predvsem pa je pomembno, da Trumpove grožnje s carinami več nikogar ne ganejo. Niti držav izvoznic. Zato stavijo na TACO:

Druga zadeva, kjer je Trump izvedel svoj najnovejši TACO, je napoved iz prejšnjega tedna o “nekaj velikega” glede Rusije, kar bo sporočil v ponedeljek. Vsi so pričakovali, da bo javno podprl zakon o 500 % carinah na vse države, ki kršijo sankcije in trgujejo z Rusijo – zakon, ki ga pripravlja nori senator Lindsay Graham. No, medtem ko naj bi se tresla gora, se je spet rodila Trumpova miška – Trump je včeraj napovedal, da bo uvedel 100 % carine na uvoz iz Rusije, če v roku 50 dni ne uredi zadeve glede premirja z Ukrajino. Pri čemer Rusija letno izvozi v ZDA le še za 3 milijarde dolarjev blaga, od tega predvsem jedrsko gorivo, umetna gnojila in nekaj kritičnih materialov. Torej same strateške proizvode, katerih uvoz ZDA nujno potrebujejo, sicer bi njihov uvoz že Bidnova administracija prepovedala. 

Trump je tudi napovedal nadaljevanje dobave orožja in predvsem sistemov protizračne obrambe Patriot (tistih neučinkovitih sistemov, ki jih ruske sile s takšnim užitkom in domiselno taktiko raketirajo). Toda vse te obljube so prazne oziroma ne pomenijo povečanja dobav orožja, kot zelo dobro analizira Mikael Valtersson:

There will probably be no increase of western support to Ukraine, but neither any decrease either as a consequence of Trump’s statements today. Russia will probably not be very worried, but a bit dissappointed. Let me explain.

During the period 2022-2024 Ukraine on average got 3,5 bn Euro/dollar each month in military aid. Half from the US and half from Europe. During January – April 2025 US aid stopped, but Europe increased its aid to compensate for this. Or maybe not Europe, rather the UK and the Nordic countries. They gave around 10 bn Euros of Europe’s 14 bn Euro aid. So military aid continues at around 3,5 bn Euro a month.

United States has no real plans to increase military aid to Ukraine. The US Congress has approved military support to Ukraine in the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) US budget. But the amount is 500 mn dollar this year, compared to the monthly average 2022-2024 of 1 700 mn Dollar. That’s 2,5 percent of previous levels.

What about Trump’s promise to deliver weapons to Ukraine for 10 bn Dollar? That’s not military aid. The US is selling those weapons to NATO, i.e. Europe. Then they are given to Ukraine. It might seem a huge amount of money, but the truth is that Europe is running out of weapons to give Ukraine and must buy weapons from the US if they want to continue giving Ukraine military aid at present levels in 2025-26. The European countries takes 1/4 of their yearly military aid to Ukraine and buy US weapons for these 10 bn.

So Western military aid continues at the same levels as before to Ukraine. But this aid hasn’t been enough to stop the Russian advance, but they might be enough to prolong the war 2-4 years. The main result will be a couple of hundred thousands killed soldiers on each side.

Another example how unrealistic Trump’s statements are is his promise to deliver 17 Patriot systems to Ukraine immediately…..

The US has around 50 Patriot systems and Europe 25-30. Neither the US or the European states believe they have a surplus of Patriot systems. The German defence minister Pistorius said that Germany must keep its six Patriot systems to defend Germany. Ukraine might get a couple of Patriot systems, but the rest will come when new systems are being produced. In a couple of years Patriot production might reach 10 systems a year. If Ukraine get every Patriot system produced they might get 17 systems by the end of 2027.

Trump’s threat that tariffs on Russian imports might rise to 100 percent if there isn’t a ceasefire within 50 days are a very weak threat, since US import from Russia is at around 5 bn Dollars. More importantly Trump seems to have stopped the proposed 500 percent tariff on every country that buys Russian oil.

To sum it up; Much ado about nothing, or maybe more truthfully, much ado about little.