Nisem prepričan, da bo do resnejših sankcij proti Izraelu kdaj res prišlo, kajti moč finančnega sektorja, ki ga obvladuje kapitalska elita, ki se identificira kot židovsjega porekla, je gromozansko velika. Je močnejša od moči ZDA in katerekoli države z izjemo Kitajske. Je pa dobro, da so se tudi v največjih medijih začeli glede tega opredeljevati. Financial Times je bil prvi glede obsodbe izraelskega genocida nad Palestinci, temu valu se je kasneje pridružilo več velikih medijev. In Financial Times je spet prvi, ki javno diskutira o nujnosti sankcij proti Izraelu in kje bi Izrael najbolj bolelo. Izrael bi najbolj bolele sankcije glede prepovedi trgovanja, saj je polovično odvisen od uvoza iz držav EU.

Torej, kdaj bomo v Evropskem svetu imeli diskusijo o tem?

Europe’s patience with Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza and Israeli settlers’ aggression in the occupied West Bank may finally be running out.

In the past few weeks, EU foreign ministers have triggered a review of Israel’s association agreement with the bloc, Britain has halted trade talks, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund blacklisted an Israeli company for facilitating energy deliveries to West Bank settlements, and the leaders of France, the UK and Canada threatened to put sanctions on the country. Even Germany, Israel’s most stalwart backer in Europe, is criticising the country’s conduct.

Too little too late, some will say. And they will point to how fast the west imposed sanctions on Russia, in meaningful and unprecedented ways, after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and put the difference down to hypocrisy.

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Indeed, the UN has found overwhelming evidence of Israeli war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza and in connection with the increasingly brutal occupation of the West Bank.

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On the specifics, it is obvious that if European countries opt for sanctions, they will have to do so without the US. So the time is right to map out the areas where sanctions on Israel by Europe alone (or with any other willing allies) would have the most impact.

Banking and financial sanctions are mostly likely to be ineffective, as the US can easily duplicate any payment and funding channels. There is one exception: immobilising foreign exchange reserves, as the west has done with Russia, would impose an economic cost.

The Bank of Israel invests about a quarter of its relatively large stock of reserves in Europe, which a freeze would make unavailable for their financial stabilisation function and could in time be put towards any compensation due to Palestinians.

The hardest-hitting sanctions would probably be on trade and travel. Israel sources nearly half of its goods imports from Europe and sends more than a third of its exports to the continent, according to its statistics bureau. A significant share of the imports consists of fuels, a trade Europe has outsize influence over due to its dominance of shipping-related services. At least a quarter of Israel’s large services trade is also with European markets. Restrictions on business services and tourism would be highly disruptive.

Preparing for sanctions is important beyond the immediate moral and political imperative of reacting to violations of international law.

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Preparations are also needed to counter any US sabotage, which is already under way with Washington’s debilitating moves against the International Criminal Court.

By showing it is ready to act against Israel if it so chooses, the EU would show it is ready to act against grave breaches of international law by anyone. Legal consistency would make threats of sanctions more credible; incentives to respect European red lines would strengthen them and signal consequences for crossing them.

Vir: Martin Sandbu, Financial Times