Včerajšnji dogovor med ZDA in Kitajsko, po katerem so za obdobje treh mesecev ZDA znižale carine na kitajske izdelke na 30 %, Kitajska na ameriške pa na 10 %, je treba razumeti predvsem iz vidika popuščanja ZDA, da do pogovorov sploh lahko pride. Kitajska stran je namreč kot pogoj za začetek pogajanj postavila zahtevo, da ZDA svoje ekscesne carine najprej zniža na izhodišče, to je na obdobje pred 2. aprilom 2025. Obe državi sta v ženevskem dogovoru zato carine spustili nazaj na to izhodišče pred 2. aprilom 2025, kar omogoča, da se državi sploh lahko začneta pogovarjati o bodoči ureditvi bilateralne trgovine.

Ta dogovor lahko Trump sicer prodaja kot zmago in borze lahko spet letijo v nebo. Toda v resnici gre za Trumpovo kapitulacijo. Moral je stopiti nazaj, da so se Kitajci sploh pripravljeni začeti pogovarjati.

This is worth a read: China’s statement on the agreement with the U.S.

They highlight that, besides the fact the tariffs would be reduced to 10%, a key outcome of the meeting is that both sides “recognize the importance of bilateral economic and trade relations to the two countries and the global economy, recognize the importance of sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial bilateral economic and trade relations, and continue to advance relevant work in the spirit of mutual openness, continuous communication, cooperation and mutual respect.”

This is indeed perhaps the most important outcome. Trump’s tariffs marked the apex of Washington’s decoupling illusion, and this reversal should deter any future attempts of doing the same.

To use the card analogy that the Trump administration loves to use, Trump went all in with his extreme tariffs, but when China called his bluff he was forced to fold and accept that his approach couldn’t be sustained.

It’s now clear: when it comes to severing economic ties with China, the US simply doesn’t have the cards—no matter how aggressively they try to play them. So with that in mind, you’re left with only one viable strategy: cooperation and mutual respect.

Vir: Arnaud Bertrand