Ta kolumna Javierja Blasa je bila objavljena 4 dni pred španskim električnim mrkom. Blas se v kolumni sklicuje na zadnja opozorila Mednarodne agencije za energijo o kompleksnosti zagotavljanja stabilnosti elektroenergetskih sistemov času povečanih deležev elektrike iz nestanovitnih obnovljivih virov. Eno izmed ključnih tveganj pri tem je (1) prezgodnje ugašanje stabilnih virov energije (kot so jedrske in elektrarne na premog in plin), pri čemer so slednje tudi fleksibilne narave (hitro se lahko vključijo in uravnotežijo diskrepanco med trenutnim obsegom proizvodnje in porabe elektrike), in (2) nepravočasna izgradnja fleksibilnih nadomestnih virov elektrike za čas velikih diskrepanc med obsegom proizvodnje in porabe elektrike ali zgolj nihanj v obsegu porabe.

Glede slednje točke velja opozorilo, da so baterijski sistemi lahko koristni za uravnavanje nihanj v proizvodnji in porabi, vendar je njihov problem, da imajo omejene kapacitete (in s tem omejen čas trajanja odziva) in da nimajo rotirajoče mase, zato ne morejo zagotoviti naravne inercije. Namesto tega uporabljajo sintetično inercijo, ki temelji na hitrem zaznavanju sprememb frekvence in ustreznem odzivu. Vendar pa ta pristop ne more popolnoma nadomestiti naravne inercije, saj je odvisen od programske opreme in ima lahko omejitve pri hitrosti in obsegu odziva. Baterijski sistemi tudi niso kaj prida uporabni za vzpostavljanje omrežja po mrku.

Ključ za zagotovitev delujočega in stabilnega elektroenergetskega sistema, ki tudi zagotavlja zadostnen obseg elektrike po nizkih cenah, je v skrbnem načrtovanju in optimalni kombinaciji stabilnih in nestanovitnih virov energije, ustreznih rezervnih in nadomestnih kapacitetah ter v dobri povezanosti z evropskim elektroenergetskim sistemom. Slovenija je tak stabilen, stroškovno ugoden in cenovno konkurenčen sistem dosedaj imela, v prihodnje pa mora zagotoviti izdatno in stabilno zamenjavo za zaprti obrat TEŠ, kar je lahko le nova enota jedrske elektrarne (ob zagotovitvi novih rezervnih kapacitet v obliki plinske elektrarne s kombiniranim ciklom). Na Elesu se tega dobro zavedajo in tudi naša delovna skupina energetikov bo kmalu predstavila tak optimalni koncept bodočega elektroenergetskega sistema Slovenije.

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The electrification of everything is the biggest shake up the global energy system has seen in decades. Unfortunately, the route to the future is hung up by the culture wars of the energy transition and the fight against climate change. That’s putting pressure on the advocates of electric vehicles, heat pumps and wind turbines to address the risks their vision carries.

Confronting them is increasingly important as power consumption booms. Since 2010, global electricity demand has grown almost twice as fast as total energy use. The trend is likely to continue, in part because of electron-hungry new technologies, like data centers and artificial intelligence, and in part simply because the world is getting richer.

At the same time, the way the world meets electricity demand is changing beyond recognition: Weather-dependent generation sources like solar panels and wind turbines are becoming the largest source of incremental supply in contrast to the dependable sources the world has relied on for the past century — atomic reactors, coal-fired power plants and large hydropower projects.

Still, the global mindset when it comes to energy security is firmly focused on the geopolitics of fossil fuels and the Middle East, rather than in the new world of electrons. Energy officials have yet to map properly the risk implications of electrifying everything. Fortunately, governments are starting to wake up to them.

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Unfortunately, green activists, who hardly see any problem with electrifying everything, believe any concerns represent little more than attempts to delay a needed transition away from fossil fuels. Climate deniers only see trouble in renewables, EVs and the other greener technologies, forgetting all the risks that oil, gas and coal bring along. In between both positions lays the reality.

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The second risk is matching a demand that requires 24/7 supply with a generation system that, at the margin, depends today on whether the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. “Systemic challenges will emerge from balancing increasingly renewable-dominated grids during extended low-generation periods,” the IEA said on its confidential paper, which was seen by Bloomberg Opinion.

In plain English: It’s unclear how the grid will work when the weather isn’t helping. That’s a reality that the IEA — and renewable advocates — have long downplayed. It’s refreshing that’s now acknowledged openly.

There’s an additional headache. Under pressure to meet green targets, utilities are shutting down so-called dispatchable power plants that can be turned on and off on demand, like atomic reactors and coal- and gas-fired plants. Germany, which shut all its nuclear power stations, is a textbook example. “Current vulnerabilities stem from premature retirement of dispatchable generation without adequate replacements,” the IEA warned.

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The fourth risk is the special nature of electricity. Supply and demand of electrons must match every second, every minute, every hour, every day. The coal, gas, and oil markets have many buffers and stockpiles, smoothing out any glitches. Electricity doesn’t have that luxury. That makes the system more vulnerable. A pylon that goes down can trigger a regional blackout; a cyberattack can disconnect large swatches of the network.

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The first step to solve a problem is to acknowledge it. It’s good news that governments are openly talking about the risks of well-intended green policies. Now, the job is to start addressing them. Flagging the problem isn’t climate denialism. It’s electricity realism.

Vir: Javier Blas, Bloomberg