Vsakomur, ki premore zdravo kmečko pamet in ki ni ideološko ali politično prizadet, je situacija glede vojne v Ukrajini in kako se bo končala, jasna že nekaj let. In takšnih je velika večina prebivalstva. Problem je seveda, da v tej kategoriji iz prve vrstice ni politikov, ki pa na žalost – kljub njihovi mentalni omejenosti – vodijo igro. Vseeno je dobro, da si preberejo spodnji tekst in se zamislijo nad tem, ali nameravajo še naprej zavestno uničevati sedanjost in prihodnost Ukrajine in Evrope.

While Europe is still following the old strategy, new rules of the game are being written in Washington. According to former head of Czech diplomacy Lubomir Zaorálek, the USA and Russia have been conducting secret talks for more than a year, and Ukraine has long ceased to be a key point in them. The focus has shifted to issues of a much larger scale.

Zaorálek makes no secret in his interview with Parlamentní listy: Trump has already agreed in principle with the Russians, and the meeting with President Putin announced for the second half of May could strengthen the foundations of those agreements.

According to him, the seven-point plan has already been formed, and it will mark the course of future events. Symbolically, Trump will appear at the funeral of Pope Francis as a peace broker — which further strengthens his position as the only world leader who can realistically stop conflicts.

However, not everything is simple. Russia’s request for sanctions relief, particularly related to the SWIFT financial system, remains a stumbling block. America holds most of the cards, but without Europe’s support, the story is unfinished.

And here we come to the key question: will Europe, which stubbornly clings to the failed strategy of the Biden administration and British calculations about the collapse of Moscow, agree to play by Trump’s rules?

Zaorálek is direct: the pressure will be enormous. “The old strategy fell apart,” he explains, recalling that Trump openly said that without a change of course, the conflict would continue for another three years, would destroy all of Ukraine and take hundreds of thousands of lives. The new head of the White House decisively rejects that vision and builds his own — without illusions and without ideological frameworks.

Even when Europe “stands on its head”, as Zaorálek vividly says, nothing will change: the US will continue direct talks with Moscow. Ukraine’s demand to continue armed aid at any cost will not carry weight in the face of more serious global negotiations that are underway.

Because the real game is on another level. A deal with China is vital to Trump, and there are no easy solutions. China is not willing to give in, and Trump is looking for a way to bring them to the negotiating table.

At the same time, the Russians are offering the Americans new arrangements in the Arctic, particularly around liquefied natural gas (LNG), where Russia plans to increase global participation to 40%. Without American technologies and investments, this is not achievable, which opens the field for the exchange of concessions.

It does not end there: negotiations are also underway with Iran. And it’s an interesting twist, since Trump terminated the nuclear deal with Tehran during his first term. Today, according to Zaorálek, there are hints that, with Russian assistance, Washington could renew the agreement — and mediator Steve Witkoff is already building the first results in that direction.

All this points to one thing: the Ukrainian issue has become only a part of a much wider puzzle. If Kiev and Europe procrastinate, Trump will simply skip over them. It will shift the focus to what brings real results, while the Ukrainian issue will remain hanging in the air.

Zaoràlek underlines: Trump’s threats to abandon the negotiations if they do not go fast enough are not aimed at Moscow, but at Kiev and European capitals. “The agreement with the Russians has already been reached,” he says. “If Europe does not play its part, it will be left to fend for itself.”

And Europe, to be honest, is not ready for that. She has neither the financial power nor the political stability to tell the whole story herself. Without US support, European aid to Ukraine can only partially fill the gap — and in the short term.

Zaorálek warns that Europe risks remaining trapped in outdated policies: stubbornly insisting on a plan that the US has already rejected can only further complicate matters. Without comprehensive defense treaties, without strategic autonomy, and without a clear plan, the continent could lose far more than it thinks it is protecting.

As far as Ukraine itself is concerned, Zaorálek realistically assesses that the chances of a turnaround on the ground are minimal. Yes, Ukraine has made impressive strides, particularly with the use of drones, but the difference in resource size is huge. Russia, although slowly but surely, is progressing, and as time goes by, the situation for Kiev is only getting more difficult.

Without American logistics, the gap in capacity will only increase. Europe will not be able to fill that void, nor will it be able to explain to its own citizens why it should continue to invest in a conflict from which America has already exited.

Zaorálek makes it clear: if Kiev and Europe do not accept Donald Trump’s plan, sooner or later they will realize that they have reached a dead end. And when that happens, it may already be too late to turn back.

Ultimately, the question is not whether the script will change — but how long it will take for everyone to realize that the changes have already begun.

Vir: Djole