Medtem ko se Trumpov rodeo s carinami nadaljuje (po Trumpovem postopnem dvigovanju carin na izdelke iz Kitajske na 145 % je Kitajska postopno dvignila carine na ameriške izdelke na 125 %, nakar je Trump v petek znižal carine na nekatere občutljive izdelke, kot so pametni telefoni in polprevodniki, na 10 %, … in to je šele zgodnja faza carinske vojne), pa je že dokaj jasno, da bo glavna zmagovala te carinske vojne Brazilija. Brazilija je bila zmagovalka carinske vojne med ZDA in Kitajsko že v prvem Trumpovem mandatu. Takrat je Kitajska začela preusmerjati svoj uvoz nekaterih ključnih kmetijskih in živilskih izdelkov (soja, koruza, govedina, piščančje meso) proti Braziliji. Pri soji se je delež ameriških izvoznikov v kitajskem uvozu zmanjšal za 10 odstotnih točk in podobno kaže tudi pri ostalih izdelkih.

In takrat so bile carine nizke. ori 145-odstotnih carinah bo seveda uvoz ameriških kmetijskih in živilskih proizvodov postal prohibitivno drag. Proizvajalci hrane iz Brazilije, Argentine in drugih držav si zato že lahko manejo roke in pošljejo zahvalna pisma Trumpu za to darilo. Na drugi strani pa ameriški proizvajalci, ki so tradicionalno volilci republikancev, najbrž po tej Trumpovi sabotaži ne bodo več tako zelo zagreti zanje.

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Brazil was a major winner in President Donald Trump’s first trade war with China, dramatically expanding its then-narrow lead over the US as Beijing’s biggest food supplier. It now looks set to pull further ahead, with exports to China already surging before Trump hiked his tariffs on the country by 145 per cent and Beijing added levies of 125 per cent.

“It is a boon for farmers in Brazil and Argentina, and it will help their industry a lot,” said Ishan Bhanu, lead agriculture analyst at commodities data provider Kpler. “The ramifications of this will be longer lasting than the actual measures — in Asia, countries will build better relationships with South America.”

Brazil’s beef sales to China climbed a third in the first quarter of 2025, compared with a year earlier, while Chinese imports of its poultry increased 19 per cent year on year in March, according to local trade associations. Meanwhile, foreign demand has seen Brazilian soyabeans trading at a $1.15 premium to their US counterparts on global markets, having sold at a 25-cent discount only in January.

“China is moving quickly to secure supplies of not only soya, but other commodities,” said Rodrigo Alvim, international director of Brazil’s Minas Port Group. “This will result in less demand for American grains.”

…

US farmers were “still reeling” from Trump’s first trade war and “certainly not thrilled about an extended” second one, Kentucky soyabean farmer Caleb Ragland, a three-time Trump voter, said on Thursday.

In an open letter, Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, pleaded with Trump to make a deal with China.

“It is urgent that a deal happens. The farm economy is much weaker now than it was in his first term. After the first trade war, we lost nearly 10 per cent of market share to China that we never regained,” he wrote.

China also last month in effect blocked a significant share of the entry of US beef exports to the country, valued last year at $1.6bn, by not renewing registrations that allow hundreds of US meat facilities to export there. There had also been only limited soy, wheat, corn or sorghum shipments this year, said a person familiar with US agricultural exports, who requested anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

Vir: Financial Times