Večkrat sem že pisal, da je zeleni vodik (proizveden iz viškov elektrike iz vode in vetra) – zaradi katastrofalno nizkega energetskega izkoristka in katastrofalne ekonomike, in to kljub visokim subvencijam – mrtev in da več kot 90 % vodikovih projektov nima niti enega kupca. Zato vsi ti projekti eden za drugim bankrotirajo in vsi resni igralci so se iz zelenega vodika umaknili. Podobno velja za modri vodik (proizveden iz metana, vendar z odvzemom CO2). O tem poročajo vsi poslovni mediji.

Zato se mi zdi zanimivo, ko spremljam nekatere vodiku naklonjene platforme, kako nočejo sprejeti realnosti. Takšen je denimo današnji Newsletter, ki ga pripravlja Hydrogen Economist. Pravi nekako takole:

najprej je bil velik hype, za katerega zdaj vemo, da ni bil realističen, nato je prišla huda ohladitev, zdaj pa smo v fazi ponovnega ovrednotenja vodikove strategije, …vendar “dolgoročni potencial vodika za razogljičenje industrij in zagotavljanje trajnostne surovine za e-goriva ostaja neizčrpen. Stroški se bodo znižali in izboljšanje ekonomije bo omogočilo naložbe v infrastrukturo, vendar bo to lahko trajalo dlje, kot je industrija pričakovala pred petimi leti.“

Torej propagandisti so se – v izostanku dejstev – zatekli v religijo.

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A reassessment of clean hydrogen’s growth trajectory is underway, but the energy vector’s long-term potential to decarbonise remains intact

First came the hype. Then the reality check. Now, the clean hydrogen sector has entered its first full-blown correction, with some developers aggressively scaling back capacity targets and, in some cases, cancelling projects altogether.

French utility Engie is one of the few to go public with its reduced ambition, pushing back a 4GW green hydrogen target to 2035 from 2030. Elsewhere, UK-based BP has shelved its large HyGreen project in northern England, which had been expected to hit 500MW by 2030. The move came amid a broader strategy shift from the oil and gas major that has seen it scale back investment across the transition business.

Talk of reduced near-term capacity targets and cost overruns in other regions, including the Middle East, has also circulated in recent weeks, while projects in Scandinavia have also hit the buffers, including Europe’s largest e-methanol plant.

The industry’s pause for breath has been prompted mainly by prohibitively high production costs, which have in turn deterred offtakers from reconfiguring their processes to run on green or blue hydrogen. Subsidies have failed in many cases to bridge the gap between viable prices and offtakers’ willingness to pay for clean hydrogen, or its derivative and e-fuels.

Cost inflation, persistent supply chain issues, international trade friction and geopolitics have all contributed to a slowdown to a greater or lesser extent. Extreme uncertainty around the new US government’s readiness to support hydrogen supply and demand, continue to weigh on the sector. The case for blue hydrogen as the forerunner, with green forming a later second wave of supply, has never looked stronger.

Down but not out

However, this is not the beginning of the end of the clean hydrogen story. The wheels have slowed but they have not come off. The EU remains firmly committed to the sector, with plans for another €1b ($1.09b) round of European Hydrogen Bank subsidy auctions. Renewables rich countries in the Middle East, southern Europe, South America and North Africa continue to attract developers with rapidly evolving regulation and support frameworks, while China appears to be building a hydrogen economy at pace and at scale.

As with all new industries, timing is crucial. Setting 2030 as hydrogen’s first big milestone in terms of production capacity has not looked remotely realistic for some time, although the governments that set that goal have been reluctant to revise it. The slow realisation by policymakers that support for supply needs to be matched by support for demand has also left the industry out of kilter, while the scale of the challenge in developing new pipelines or repurposing existing natural gas lines has also become clearer over the last 12 months.

Despite these challenges, hydrogen’s long-term potential to decarbonise hard-to-abate industries, and to provide a sustainable feedstock for e-fuels, remains undimmed. Costs will fall and improving economics will enable investment in infrastructure, but this may take longer than the industry expected five years ago.

Vir:  Hydrogen Economist Newsletter