Spodaj je dober komentar v Naked capitalism o izidu nemških volitev in o novem norem evropskem načrtu o 700 milijardah evrov, ki naj bi jih – po napovedi nemške zunanje ministrice v odhodu – EU države na podlagi skupne zadolžitve namenile za vojaško pomoč Ukrajini. Načrt je nor. Prvič, ker bi to pomenilo, da bi članice EU morale del svojega proračuna odtegniti (1) domačim izdatkom za socialne zadeve, (2) vlaganjem v družbeno in prometno infrastrukturo in/ali (3) vlaganjem v razvoj. Po poročilu Maria Draghija bi morale države EU namenjati letno okrog 800 milijard evrov za gospodarsko in tehnološko prestrukturiranje, sicer bo Evropa še pospešila tehnološko zaostajanje za Kitajsko in ZDA. No, očitno bo orožje za Ukrajino imelo prednost pred razvojem. 

In drugič, teh 700 milijard evrov ne bo opazno pospešilo gospodarske rasti v Evropi, (1) ker je multiplikator vlaganj v obrambne namene manjši od 1 (izdatki za pokojnine imajo multiplikator okrog 1.4, izdatki za infrastrukturo pa blizu 2) in (2) ker Evropa 78 % orožja za lastne potrebe uvozi, od tega 63 % iz ZDA (kot izhaja iz poročila Maria Draghija). Z drugimi besedami, države EU so tik pred tem, da se odločijo s 700 milijardami evrov stimulirati ameriško in izraelsko vojaško industrijo. Norost brez primere.

Očitno je razum izgubil domovinsko pravico v EU. Na drugi strani imamo ameriškega predsednika, ki ga imajo evropski voditelji za norega. Toda Trump je (ob že uveljavljenem ukrepu prenehanja vojaške pomoči Ukrajini) napovedal zmanjšanje vojaških izdatkov za polovico in da bo v to prepričal preostali dve velesili – Kitajsko in Rusijo.

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Germany’s political elite largely represented by the four parties (the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and the Free Democratic Party, which fell below the five percent threshold to be seated in the Bundestag) remain stuck in the “rules-based order” transatlantic fantasyland championing their democracy and liberal values while demonizing Russia, reality is at the gates.

It’s increasingly difficult to square that paradigm while remaining obsessed with supporting Israel’s genocide campaign and criminalizing speech (notice JD Vance in his widely celebrated Munich dress down didn’t criticize Germany’s heavy handed approach when it comes to this area of free speech).

But more than anything it is an economy circling the drain, which is largely the result of the war against Russia, as well as hitching itself to the US empire with a more combative stance against Beijing.

And for all the talk of a US-Russia peace, what do we have so far? Let’s cut away all the headline-grabbing transatlantic political fights and look at the ways Germany and Europe remain on autopilot on a journey to becoming the next Ukraine:

1. The EU is using the current US-Ukraine split for a renewed push to repurpose cohesion funds and/or get Eurobonds. The idea of joint EU debt in order to fund militarization is reportedly “picking up steam.”

The madwoman in Berlin, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock let the cat out of the bag on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that $700 billion is coming. She told Berliner Zeitung the following:

“We will launch a large package that has never been seen on this scale before,” said Baerbock. “Similar to the euro or the [Coronavirus] crisis, there is now a financial package for security in Europe. That will come in the near future.”

According to Baerbock, the deal will be announced sometime after the German election. The package is believed to include money for ​​”military training, the acceleration of relief efforts, arms deliveries and what Europe could offer for security guarantees.”

Merz, too, is reportedly on board. He had this to say following yesterday’s victory. From DW:

The favorite for the future German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, sharply criticized Donald Trump’s administration and urged Europe to distance [itself] from Washington during a post-election panel airing on state broadcaster ARD.

“I am communicating closely with a lot of prime ministers, and heads of EU states and for me it is an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we achieve independence from the US, step by step,” Merz said.

“Step by step” is doing a lot of work there. Merz was after all recently floating the idea of buying F-35s from the US.

How will the European public, which has largely soured on the war, react to more power going to Brussels and loads of debt in order to keep losing to the Russians?

The humiliation from the US has been so thorough — self-inflicted by Europe but humiliating nonetheless — while the propaganda against Russia so relentless for years, I wonder if we’re going to see a rally around the EU flag moment similar to the time after the official start of the Ukraine war in 2022. The hatred and fear of Russia certainly remains strong.

2. Where will the EU get most of the weapons paid for from the proposed $700 billion package? They’ll turn to the US. There will be little benefit for EU economies. Bloomberg notes how if increased military spending were funded with tax increases, or cuts in other areas, military keynesianism won’t be in the cards:

One factor limiting the stimulus to be had from rearmament is that Europe buys much of its military gear from American suppliers. Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s competitiveness report estimated that 78% of purchases come from production outside the EU—and 63% from the US alone. That means any “multiplier” effect of stepped-up spending on growth would be low. What’s more, recruiting more Europeans to the military and defense industry would bring down unemployment, possibly fueling inflationary pressures that would lead to higher interest rates. In all, Rush calculates that EU economic output might be higher by about 0.6% in 2028, “which implies a modest nudge up in GDP growth in the next few years.”

3. Neoliberal dream. Germany’s railway system is in a state of collapse, it and other EU countries are now cutting sick benefits, and other social programs as the costs of “supporting” Ukraine’s national suicide and the EU’s economic suicide add up.

And yet the priority is more weapons to fund an unwinnable war and prevent the Russians from conquering Europe — a threat for which there is still no evidence and makes no sense if you spend ten seconds thinking about it.

But on the plus side from the perspective of the European vultures, it provides cover to continue dismantling the welfare state and privatize everything from infrastructure to social services.

4. For a time US natural gas exporters get to continue to profit. Following the Munich Security Conference humiliation, the EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič flew to Washington promising more concessions from Europe in order to please the empire’s capital. Among the potential offers from the EU: axe EU methane emission rules that would punish the US LNG industry while ponying up evermore money to buy more from the US, cut tariffs on US-made cars, and get tougher on China.

5. Oh and there’s the potential that should the US and Russia eventually enforce a peace, American companies will in the not-too-distant future return to Russia. European ones? Not until the EU swallows some humble pie. And it will be the US that gets to pick over the scraps of whatever is left of Ukraine (Washington is targeting more than just rare earths in Ukraine’s real assets: pipelines, ports, nuclear power, and key infrastructure). The EU can deal with the fallout of the failed state on its and Russia’s borders.

The US and Russia could work out some rapprochement, which some in Washington believe will help with other wars in the Middle East, as well as the looming confrontation with China.

Meanwhile, the EU continues to piss into the tent, and should talks between Washington and Moscow fall apart, Europe’s militarization is setting it up to become the next Ukraine. That would certainly “extend” Russia as the famous 2019 RAND report suggested. At the very least, Europe’s doubling down on suicidal belligerence ensures that it remains walled off from the Eurasian project for the foreseeable future, and the US can focus its efforts on blowing up other bridges in the world’s heartland.

One would have thought that the US would have had to stay in the heavyweight fight against Russia in order to continue to profit off of Europe’s misery, but this line of thinking might have underestimated the EU’s impotence. As of now, it looks like the EU countries are content with ongoing vassalage despite the increasing abuse coming from Washington.

Vir: Naked capitalism