Praktično vsi komentarji, ki sem jih prebral glede govora J.D. Vancea, ameriškega podpredsednika, na münchenski varnostni konferenci, so si edini v tem, da so dogajanje v prejšnjem tednu označili kot zgodovinski moment, ki je Evropo izločil kot pomembnega igralca v globalni geopolitični ureditvi. Neposredni pogovor ameriškega in ruskega predsednika v torek, govor ameriškega sekretarja za obrambo Peta Hegsetha v sredo na srečanju obrambnih ministrov Nata in govor ameriškega podpredsednika J.D. Vancea v petek so vsi tako neposredno kot simbolno demonstrirali, da ZDA Evrope ne jemljejo več niti kot pomembnega igralca v urejanju mednarodnih zadev, kaj šele kot partnerja pri tem. Ne jemljejo je več kot pomembnega igralca niti pri urejanju diplomatske rešitve vojne na meji z Evropo.

Vsi trije nastopi najvišjih ameriških političnih predstavnikov so Evropo zreducirali na to, kar je – ostarela dama, ki predseduje kokošnjaku nezrelih političark in politikov brez realne moči in ki nima ničesar, s čimer bi svoj kokošnjak lahko ubranila pred lisico ali da se kokoši ne skljuvajo med seboj.

Evropa se je seveda v to situacijo spravila sama. Sama se je ekonomsko ubila z restriktivnimi skupnimi politikami, s pretirano, neživljenjsko regulacijo, z evrom, z varčevalnim fiskalnim okvirjem, s samomorilsko zeleno agendo in sankcijami proti Rusiji. Sama je kriva, da ni izgradila lastne varnostne arhitekture z lastnimi obrambnimi kapacitetami. Sama se je po prvem Trumpovem mandatu, ki je bil opozorilo, da ZDA ne bodo več plačevale za zaščito Evrope, v Bidnovem mandatu še dodatno politično podredila ameriškemu diktatu glede ameriške proxy vojne v Ukrajini. Sama je tako močno zaostrila retoriko proti Rusiji in kakršnikoli možnosti diplomatske rešitve vojne, da se je izločila iz morebitnih pogajanj o mirovni rešotvi vojne. Putin Evrope ne bo želel za pogajalsko mizo, ZDA tudi ne, ker bi lahko zminirala sama pogajanja. Evropa se je sama tehnološko invalidirala, ker s pretirano regulacijo, brez politike spodbujanja tehnološkega razvoja v velikem obsegu in brez razvoja kapitalskega trga za tehnološka podjetja ni omogočila oziroma celo ni dopustila razvoja in rasti domačih velikih tehnološkig podjetij. Sama se je podredila ameriškim interesom glede hladne vojne s Kitajsko in se namesto strateškega partnerstva s Kitajsko, ki bi Evropi omogočilo vsaj možnost diverzifikacije platform, podredila ameriškemu tehnološkemu monopolu nad vsemi platformami.

Evropa je out. In sama je to naredila. Zato je govoričenje predsednice evropske komisije, ki je nihče ni nič vprašal niti omenil prejšnji teden, da Evropa mora biti za pogajalsko mizo glede Ukrajine, skrajno patetično. Enako kot izjava indolentne nemške zunanje ministrice na odhodu na smetišče zgodovine, da Nemčija nasprotuje Trumpovemu predlogu, da Rusija postane članica G8. Ne samo, da Nemčija, ne zdaj in ne v naslednjih letih, glede tega ne bo imela nobene besede, pač pa je sama skupina G7 sama po sebi postala zgodovinski artefakt. G7 je passe, nova globalna realnost je G3. Danes obstajajo tri globalne velesile, to so ZDA, Kitajska in Rusija. Države z največjim strateškim vplivom zaradi kombinacije svoje gospodarske, tehnološke in vojaške prevlade.

Seveda bi bilo nujno, da bi bila Evropa zraven, ko se bo postavljala nova globalna ureditev. Predvsem na trgovinskem področju prek ohranitve ali preoblikovanja pravil WTO. Kajti na prosti trgovini je temeljila povojna rast in vzpon EU. Na tem področju ima Evropa enake interese kot Kitajska, da prepreči ameriško razmontiravanje pravil mednarodne trgovine, ki so se postavljala skoraj 80 let.

Vendar je dejstvo, da Evropa te vloge pomembnega igralca nima več. Ker si jo je sama vzela s svojimi samodestruktivnimi politikami v zadnjih treh desetletjih.

Ponavljam, prišli smo v evropsko stoletje ponižanja.

In za to je kriva politična elita, ki je Evropo vodila v zadnjih treh desetletjih. Ko Draghi, v sosednjem članku, govori o nujnosti radikalnih sprememb v Evropi, je ključna radikalna sprememba, ki je predpogoj za vse ostale spremembe, v zamenjavi sedanjih centrističnih nedoraslih in nesposobnih političnih sil v Evropi. Spremembe se v Evropi lahko zgodijo šele, ko bodo na oblast prišle politične sile, ki prihodnost Evrope vidijo v suverenosti in strateški avtonomiji. Gospodarski, tehnološki in vojaški.

Spodaj je nekaj odlomkov iz komentarja v Bloombergu, ki podobno nakazuje evropski zdrs v irelevantnost in patetičnost poskusa ohranitve zgodovinske vloge, ki jo je Evropa nezaustavljivo izgubila.

____________

Europe’s fate has turned on events in the Bavarian capital before, and not only in 1938 when the UK acquiesced to Adolf Hitler’s claims to part of Czechoslovakia in a doomed attempt to avoid war. In 2007, Vladimir Putin’s speech at the same annual gathering of security officials, in hindsight, set out his rationale for the invasion of Ukraine years later.

The illusion that Vance shattered was the belief, deep down, that the US would always be there to step in when needed, from World War II through to the Balkan wars of the 1990s.

“When I look at Europe today, it’s sometimes not so clear what happened to some of the cold war’s winners,” Vance said. His disdain for Europe’s mainstream politicians was clear when he ducked out to see the leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party.

US officials told some Europeans in Munich that they believe America and China are the two big powers in discussions over Ukraine, even though the war is in the EU’s backyard, one European official said. The US will keep the Europeans abreast on progress but they’re not seen as significant players.

One veteran official said that Vance’s attack during his debut abroad was a watershed moment because it was such a fundamental attack on Europe’s values. It didn’t matter that European nations were dependent on the US for security when they shared the same basic principles, the official said. Without that common understanding, liberal democracy in Europe is at risk.

Europe now finds itself in a desperate race to agree on plans for Ukraine’s security in the event of a peace deal with Trump already rushing into negotiations with Russia. The US president is planning to see Putin as soon as this month.

…

Over the years there has been a lot of talk about the need for a common defense strategy. Macron was among the most vocal about the need to ramp up European capabilities but that never went far. Germany remained stubbornly opposed to joint borrowing with European defense bonds, the key step required to unleash defense spending to the tune of trillions.

A day after Vance’s address, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spelled it out when describing his discussions with Trump about US plans for ending the war: “Not once did he mention that America needs Europe at that table.”

“That says a lot,” Zelenskiy noted on Saturday. “The old days are over – when America supported Europe just because it always had.”

The challenge for Europe goes deeper than a future Russian threat. In the here and now, Europe can’t afford to be sidelined from the conversations that will change the way the world works.

Multilateral forums like the Group of Seven and the Group of 20 are other places where its voice is heard. But if Trump decides they are not worth going to — a possibility officials are taking seriously — then their influence will be diminished even further.

That disrespect was tangible in the US dealings with both the UK and Ukraine this week.

After David Lammy’s meeting with Vance, the UK Foreign Secretary told reporters that the conversation had gone very well. Hours later the vice president was lambasting the British state for restricting protests outside abortion clinics.

In all this, the US was trying to ram through a one-sided deal to secure access to Ukraine’s natural resources after the war, according to two people familiar with the discussions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented the terms to Ukrainian officials in Kyiv earlier in the week and Vance’s team in Munich were pressuring the Ukrainians to sign, the people said.

…

One European minister noted that everything is moving fast and Europe is not good at moving fast. To emphasize that point, another official insisted that nothing can happen until after next week’s German election, even though it may take weeks to form a new government.

The crunch point could come within a few months, according to one European who speaks to both Zelenskiy and the Trump team.

Russia has prepared for this moment, assembling already its cast of top-tier negotiators. Europeans are worried that the US has made too many concessions already and is eager to declare the problem solved, leaving them with the fallout.

The challenge is that the EU is good at negotiating when everyone plays by the same rules. In the free-for-all that Trump has set off, the EU is lost, because its leaders’ hands are tied.

Multiple officials in Munich said allies needed to agree on security guarantees among themselves before talks with Putin, but Trump is moving on a different timeframe.

…

In a week where the wheels of history appeared to turn with potentially massive consequences, it’s unclear whether everyone on the continent grasps the enormity of the stakes and the need to deal with reality as it is.

Vir: Bloomberg