V financah velja pregovor, da so trgi lahko dlje časa iracionalni, kot vi lahko ostanete solventen. Nekako tako bi lahko presodili tudi o Trumpovem poskusu ustrahovanja Putina z napovedjo sankcij in zniževanja cen nafte prek “savdskih prijateljev” v OPEC. Prvič, ruska naftna industrija lahko ob nizki ceni nafte ostane dlje časa nad vodo kot ameriški naftni sponzorji Trumpa, ker deluje s precej nižjimi stroški. Savdski prijatelji pa imajo ogromno odprtih projektov, da bi si lahko privoščili daljše obdobje cen nafte pod 40 dolarjev za sodček. In drugič, pri Rusiji gre v vojni v Ukrajini za eksistenčno vprašanje in za specifičen nacionalni karakter, zato lahko Putin ostane dlje časa iracionalen, kot lahko ameriški in savdski Trumpovi prijatelji ostanejo solventni.

Spodaj je dober komentar Scotta Ritterja glede Trumpovega poskusa strategije ustrahovanja Rusije. Ritter, nekdanji inšpektor OZN, sicer goji določene simpatije do Rusije in je bil v času te vojne tudi na obisku v Rusiji, zato velja biti pozoren na določeno stopnjo pristranosti.

Ritter: Trump is trying to play “tough,” but it’s not working against Russia

US President Donald Trump is deluding himself into believing that he can dictate terms to Russia through threats and sanctions, said former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter in the Judging Freedom show.

He emphasized that Trump wants to present himself as a leader who can quickly end the conflict in Ukraine, but does not accept the reality that the conflict will end under the conditions set by Moscow.

Trump’s main mistake

According to Ritter, Trump’s biggest mistake lies in his approach to Russia – he believes he can continue with pressure and sanctions, but this, according to the former intelligence officer, will not work.

“He is deceiving himself.” “He promised to end the war, but he cannot accept the fact that it will be on Russia’s terms,” ​​Ritter said.

One example of Trump’s policies, Ritter argues, is his intention to manipulate oil prices to put economic pressure on Moscow.

However, according to him, this would have the opposite effect – while Russia would continue to profit from oil production, the American energy industry would suffer serious consequences.

“He is trying to play with economic pressures against Russia, whose oil industry operates with low production costs.” If the market price falls to $45 per barrel, they will still make money. On the other hand, the American energy industry would take a serious hit,” Ritter explained.

Trump’s threats and Russia’s response

On January 22, Trump threatened to impose new sanctions and tariffs if Russia did not end its special military operation in Ukraine. He also stated that he would ask OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia, to reduce oil prices in order to put additional pressure on Moscow.

However, the Kremlin has shown no concern over these threats. The spokesman of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, pointed out that Moscow did not see anything new in Trump’s statements and reminded that even during his first term, Trump liked to use sanctions as a political tool.

“We have not heard any signals that would indicate readiness for an equal dialogue, which Russia is ready for,” said Peskov.

Ritter concludes that if Trump continues with the same policy, he will encounter a wall of reality that he will not be able to break through. Sanctions and threats, according to him, will not bring the result that Washington expects, because Russia has a stable economic strategy and does not succumb to pressure from the West.

Vir: Djole via X