Če je bila novica včerajšnjega dneva, da je danska vlada dovolila lastnikom Severnega toka, da lahko začnejo s popravilom poškodovanih plinovodov, je novica današnjega dneva (Financial Times), da med najvišjimi predstavnikiEveopks ekomisije potekajo diskusije o ponovni vzpostavitvi dobav ruskega plina. Iniciativa za te diskusije je seveda prišla iz držav, ki so najbolj trpele zaradi odpovedi dobav ruskega plina (predvsem Nemčija, katere energtesko intenzivne panoge so od začetka vojne v Ukrajini upadle za več kot 15 %, celotno nemško gospodarstvo pa je že dve leti v recesiji). Dodatni razlogi za te diskusije pa so tudi v tem, da bi z omilitvijo sankcij proti Rusiji slednjo lažje spravili za pogajalsko mizo in da bi EU s tem dobila pogajalski vzvod proti Trumpu, ki je začel izsiljevati EU, da morajo kupovati več ameriškega LNG plina, sicer bodo deležne uvoznih carin. In seveda, Trumpov mirovni načrt za Ukrajino izpred nekaj dni predvideva, da bodo celotne stroške obnove Ukrajine prevzele države EU, ki pa bi lahko del prihodkov za ta namen pridobile z uvozno dajatvijo na uvožen ruski plin.

To potezo je bilo seveda vsekakor prejkoslej za pričakovati. Ker je menjava evropskih industrijskih izdelkov za ruske energente, surovine in umetna gnojila optimalna za obe strani, slednji pa so bili temelj primerjalnih prednosti Nemčija in evropske dobaviteljske verige za nemška podjetja. Zabavno pa pri vsem pa je dvoje. Prvič, pretvarjanje evropskih politikov, da lahko zdržijo brez ruskih energentov, brez da bi uničili nemško gospodarstvo in njeno evropsko dobaviteljsko verigo. Načrt EK je bil, da se do leta 2027 povsem odklopi od ruskega plina, marca letos naj bi pripravila končni načrt. In (z letošnjo prekinitvijo dobav prek Rusije) bi to skoraj uspelo (zmanjšanje iz 40 % na 5 % pri zemeljskem plinu, ne pa pri LNG). Le da je nemško gospodartvo v popolnem kolapsu, evrsko pa v stagnaciji.

Kot v tistem vicu o ciganu, ki je konja navajal, da bi namesto sena jedel žaganje – skoraj bi mu uspelo, potem pa je na žalost konj poginil.

In drugič, zaradi začetka teh diskusij so znoreli proti ruski jastrebi v EK, predvsem iz vzhodnoevropskih držav. Predstavljajte si baltske in poljske politike, ki zaradi zgodovinskih razlogov sovražijo Rusijo in ki jim ni bilo težko žrtvovati nemškega gospodarstva in njegove evropske dobaviteljske verige, da bi lahko zagodli zgodovinsko lekcijo Rusiji. Ampak kot pravijo, lahko je s tujim k. po koprivah mlatiti.

Ključno je, da se razum vrača v Evropo. In, paradoksalno, da je bil potreben Trump, da je ponovno aktiviral razum.

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European officials are debating whether Russian pipeline gas sales to the EU should be restarted as part of a potential settlement to end the war against Ukraine, according to people familiar with discussions.

Advocates of buying Russian gas argue it would bring down high energy prices in Europe, encourage Moscow to the negotiating table, and give both sides a reason to implement and maintain a ceasefire.

But raising the idea of reopening flows of Russian gas into Europe, even in preliminary discussions, has already sparked a backlash among Ukraine’s closest allies in the EU.

Three of the officials briefed on the talks said the idea had been endorsed by some German and Hungarian officials, with support from other capitals that saw it as a way to reduce European energy costs.

“There is pressure from some big member states on energy prices and this is one way to bring those down, of course,” said one official.

Resuming exports to Europe would significantly boost Moscow’s revenues. Before the war, flows through pipelines from Russia accounted for about 40 per cent of the EU’s total supplies, with Germany being the largest importer.

Donald Trump has demanded an end to the war “soon”, prompting discussions among western capitals about the elements needed for a lasting agreement with Moscow. The US president has also threatened the EU with tariffs unless it buys more liquefied natural gas from America, which is more expensive than piped gas.

Floating the resumption of pipeline sales from Russia has infuriated Brussels officials and diplomats from some eastern European countries, many of whom have spent the past three years working to reduce the amount of Russian energy being imported into the bloc.

“It’s madness,” said one of the officials. “How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?”

…

The EU’s stated target is to rid the bloc’s energy system of all Russian fossil fuels by 2027. The EU’s energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen is due to present a plan for hitting that goal in March.

But the dire straits of EU’s heavy industries have increased the need for European countries to source cheaper energy. Gas costs in Europe are typically three to four times higher than in the US.

Piped gas from Russia made up about 10 per cent of total supply in 2024 but has halved since a transit contract permitting flows to reach the EU through Ukraine ended in January.

The remaining pipe bringing Russian gas to the bloc is the TurkStream line through Turkey, which provides Hungary with about 7.5bn cubic metres of gas. Budapest, along with the pro-Russian government in Slovakia, have been lobbying the EU to pressure Ukraine into restarting the gas transit.

“In the end, everybody wants lower energy costs,” said a senior EU official.

Vir: Financial Times