Razvpita RAND študija iz aprila 2019 (Extending Russia), ki je nizala argumente, “kako izpostaviti Rusijo” in navajala koristi, ki bi jih od tega imele ZDA, je kot ključni mehanizem “izpostavitve Rusije” navajala forsiranje članstva Ukrajine v Natu. Študija je predvidevala, da je članstvo Ukrajine v Natu nerealistično, vendar bi “spodbujanje te možnosti s strani Washingtona lahko okrepilo ukrajinsko odločenost, medtem ko bi Rusijo prisililo, da podvoji svoja prizadevanja za preprečitev takšnega razvoja dogodkov.”
Torej tako analitiki kot tudi ameriški politični establišment, kot je pred dnevi v intervjuju priznal Greene, glavni Bidnov svetovalec za odnose z Rusijo, so se ves čas zavedali, da Ukrajina nima nobenih možnosti, da bi kdaj postala članica Nata, kljub temu so zavestno igrali na to karto, da bi Rusija na te grožnje vojaško reagirala. Ker so pričakovali, kot je predvidela študija RAND, da bodo muiltilateralne sankcije Rusijo osamile in jo gospodarsko uničile ter da bi zaradi tega padel Putinov režim.
Ta načrt se je, kljub predvidljivemu in realiziranemu ruskemu odzivu na grožnje ukrajinskega članstva v Natu, nato grdo sfižil, ker so v ZDA spregledali, da se je vmes svet spremenil in da se je težišče globalne gospodarske in politične moči prevesilo na stran Kitajske in BRICS držav ter da prav zato Rusije ni mogoče gospodarsko izolirati. Zaradi česar je prišlo do realizacije tveganj, ki ga je ob koristih “izpostavitve Rusije” tudi predvidela RAND študija, da neuspeh v Ukrajini lahko terja “visoko ceno za Ukrajino ter za prestiž in verodostojnost ZDA. To bi lahko povzročilo nesorazmerno velike ukrajinske žrtve, ozemeljske izgube in begunske tokove. Ukrajino lahko celo popelje v neugoden mir.“
In natanko to se je zgodilo. Ukrajina je po treh letih vojne uničena. In tri leta vojne v Ukrajini so pokazala, da celoten Zahod skupaj nima niti dovolj niti primernega orožja, da bi kljub angažmaju enega milijona ukrajinskih vojakov, oboroženih z zahodnim orožjem, lahko porazil Rusijo. Še več, tri leta vojne v Ukrajini so pokazale, da imajo zahodne države inferiorno orožje v primerjavi z Rusijo (droni, letala, hipersonične rakete, protizračna obramba) in da Rusija, kot je pred dnevi priznal novi generalni sekretar Nata Rutte, Rusija v treh mesecih proizvede več orožja kot vse zahodne države skupaj v enem letu. Tri leta vojne v Ukrajini so ošibile ZDA in zahodne države in pomagale Rusiji, da zasede nova ozemlja, da se ponovno industrializira, da se gospodarsko okrepi in da okrepi svoj mednarodni imidž in prestiž.
Torej, tri leta s strani ZDA sprovociane vojne v Ukrajini so ne samo povsem uničile Ukrajino in njenemu prebivalstvu vzele prihodnost, pač pa so tudi – kot v cesarjevih novih oblačilih – razgalile nemoč ZDA in zahodnih držav in jih gospodarsko in politično ošibile. Tri leta vojne v Ukrajini so pokazale, da je zahodni cesar nag. Kdo se bo še danes bal ameriških sankcij? Evropa pa je itak mrtva.
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The U.S. proxy war on Russia, which has sacrificed Ukraine, was based on research on how to ‘extend Russia’ published in 2019 by the Pentagon think-tank RAND Corp. That research was initiated by three questions:
- What are Russia’s greatest anxieties and vulnerabilities?
- In what ways can these anxieties and vulnerabilities be exploited and extend Russia?
- What are the costs and risks associated with each option, and what are the prospects of success?
RAND found that the most favorable way to ‘extend Russia’ was to use Ukraine in a war against it by providing it with lethal weapons:
The United States could increase its military assistance to Ukraine—in terms of both the quantity and quality of weapons.
…
The United States could also become more vocal in its support for NATO membership for Ukraine. […] While NATO’s requirement for unanimity makes it unlikely that Ukraine could gain membership in the foreseeable future, Washington’s pushing this possibility could boost Ukrainian resolve while leading Russia to redouble its efforts to forestall such a development.
At the time the RAND advice was published it had already been followed. Shortly after the 2014 Maidan coup the CIA had launched an intensive cooperation with the military intelligence service of Ukraine.
The partnership saw the CIA help Ukraine to rebuild its Main Directorate of Intelligence, known by its acronym HUR, which has become renowned for its audacious operations. The CIA eventually directed millions of dollars in funding to help train and equip Ukrainian intelligence officers, and to construct facilities, including around a dozen secret forward-operating bases on the border with Russia. The two services also began conducting joint operations together around the world, the highest level of trust for intelligence services, according to the former U.S. officials.
In 2017 the Trump administration started to openly deliver Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. In 2021, when Biden took over, the U.S. continued to follow the RAND advise. The flow of lethal weapons to Ukraine increased. Verbal support for NATO membership in Ukraine was given through media and anonymous briefings. But it was never stated as an official aim because the U.S. knew that there was no way to achieve it.
RAND listed ‘benefits’ the U.S., not Ukraine, would probably get by doing this. But those benefits were from weakening Russia, not from making real gains for the U.S. itself.
It also listed risks:
Alternatively, Russia might counter-escalate, committing more troops and pushing them deeper into Ukraine. Russia might even preempt U.S. action, escalating before any additional U.S. aid arrives. Such escalation might extend Russia; Eastern Ukraine is already a drain. Taking more of Ukraine might only increase the burden, albeit at the expense of the Ukrainian people. However, such a move might also come at a significant cost to Ukraine and to U.S. prestige and credibility. This could produce disproportionately large Ukrainian casualties, territorial losses, and refugee flows. It might even lead Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace.
The risks described by RAND are now the obvious outcome of the war.
All this was known and available through readily accessible sources.
Vir: Moon of Alabama
DAMIJAN blog 