From a senior US military intel officer who follows the Ukraine war professionally:

“Poland worked with the Ukrainian embassy to attempt to recruit Ukrainian men – there are currently 800,000+ Ukrainian men of conscription age in Europe – and build up multiple brigades of troops (Ukrainian men) with basic skills to go to Ukraine where they would receive advanced skills and then move to the front lines. After a recruiting campaign on all the major social media platforms across Europe, begun in early summer, only 500 men expressed interest by early November…”

“Why have 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers deserted in 3 years, compared to 16,000 Russians? Russian desertions included 9,000 in the first year, just several thousand in 2024. Ukrainian desertions include nearly 80,000 in 2024 (there is a good deal of dispute about the numbers with the lowest figure being nearly 70,000, the highest figure being just short of 200,000).”

“All said differently, support among Ukrainians for the war and the war effort is waning and many do not want to fight. Presumably they view it as a hopeless or a death sentence, or both. It raises the very real issue of what is the real morale in the Ukrainian army and are they nearing a fracture point of some sort? And this incident points out that they really don’t know how to fix it. It would seem that they need a ceasefire soon, before something breaks.”

Vir: David Goldman via X