Spodaj je dobra nit o Volkswagnovem škandalu z goljufanjem glede izpustov. Nit je dobra in točna vse do zaključka, da je ta škandal za vedno spremenil avtomobilsko industrijo. Netočna pa je v točki, da je ta škandal (s 30 milijardno kaznijo za VW) koristil Volkswagnu pri transformaciji k električnim vozilom in da je VW danes na boljšem, kot je bil pred škandalom (merjeno z vrednostjo delnice ali proizvodnjo e-avtov). Res je, ta škandal je usodno spremenil avtomobilsko industrijo in jo preusmeril k proizvodnji avtomobilov z manj izpusti (predvsem e-avti in hibridi).

Vendar pa škandal ni koristil Volkswagnu. Koristil je proizvajalcem e-avtov, predvsem Tesli (iz Elona Muska je naredil najbogatejšega zemljana) in predvsem kitajskim proizvajalcem. Delnica VW pred škandalom je marca 2015 dosegla 250 evrov, po škandalu je strmoglavila na 100 evrov, po Covidu si je aprila 2021 še opomogla na 215 evrov … nato pa je prišel “kitajski električni avtomobilski šok”. Kitajski izvoz avtomobilov se je med letom 2020 in 2024 povečal iz pol milijona na 6 miljonov, pri čemer gre predvsem za izvoz e-avtov. Delnica VW je od aprila 2021 v prostem padu in je včeraj znašala zgolj 87 evrov oziroma tretjino vrednosti tik pred škandalom. VW je letos napovedal zapiranje številnih tovarn v Evropi zaradi nekonkurenčnsti. Razloga sta dva: previsoke cene proizvodnje (energije in stroškov dela) in nekonkurenčnost v primerjavi s kitajskimi proizvajalci, ki naredijo tehnološko boljši avto za tretjino cene primerljivega VW modela.

Torej – Volkswagnov škandal je v temelju spremenil avtomobilsko industrijo, ni pa koristil Volkswagnu (in drugim tradicionalnim avtomobilskim podjetjem). “Električarji” in “Kitajsci” so jih pojedli.

In 2015, Volkswagen was caught in the biggest scandal in automotive history.

They installed “defeat devices” in 11M diesel cars to cheat emissions tests.

But their attempt to save $4.7B in compliance costs…

Led to over $30B in damages and transformed the auto industry forever.

Here’s how:🧵

Volkswagen was obsessed with becoming the world’s largest automaker.

But they had a problem: Their diesel engines couldn’t meet US emissions standards while maintaining performance.

Instead of investing in better technology, they chose a darker path… 

Engineers created sophisticated but illegal software:

– It detected when cars were being tested
– Activated full emissions controls during tests
– Then turned them off on actual roads

On the road, Volkswagen diesels emitted up to 40x the legal limit of toxic gases.

The perfect crime?
Not quite.

In 2014, a small research team at West Virginia University got curious:

They tested Volkswagen diesels on real roads by using a $50K portable emissions system

They found massive inconsistencies but Volkswagen dismissed their findings. 

But the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and California Air Resources Board started digging.

Volkswagon’s response?

They blamed “technical issues” and did a voluntary recall.

They also tried updating the defeat device

But nothing worked. The evidence was mounting.

September 18, 2015: The bomb dropped
EPA publicly accused Volkswagen of cheating.

The stock crashed 30% in one day.

CEO Martin Winterkorn resigned in disgrace.

But the worst was yet to come…

The aftermath:

– $30.4B in fines and compensation
– Criminal charges against executives
– Global recalls of 11M vehicles
– Massive reputational damage
– Stock price halved

But here’s where it gets interesting…

The scandal created a perfect storm:

– Public trust in diesel collapsed
– Regulators worldwide tightened scrutiny
– Automakers needed a new strategy
– Elon Musk’s Tesla was gaining momentum

Volkswagen made a desperate pivot…

In 2016, VW announced its “TOGETHER – Strategy 2025”:

– $37B investment in electric vehicles
– 50+ new electric models by 2025
– Complete transformation of manufacturing

They aimed to become EV market leader

The irony?
VW’s desperation accelerated the entire industry:

– BMW ramped up EV investment
– Mercedes moved up electric timelines
– Toyota revised its hybrid-focused strategy
– Ford committed $11B to electrification

But today:

– Volkswagen is Europe’s largest EV maker
– They’re Tesla’s biggest challenger
– Their ID.4 is winning global awards
– Stock has recovered and surpassed pre-scandal levels

The scandal that nearly killed them made them stronger.

Sometimes the biggest disasters lead to the greatest transformations.

Volkswagen’s crime accelerated the shift to clean mobility by a decade.

Now that’s what I call unintended consequences

Vir:  Shawn Chauham via X