V Bloombergu danes pišejo o “nezaustavljivem zatonu” nemškega gospodarstva. Pri čemer identificirajo dva ključna razloga: (1) visoke cene plina, ker se je Nemčija odrezala od ruskega plina, in (2) tehnološko zaostajanje za Kitajsko. Prvo ubija predvsem nemške energetsko intenzivne panoge, ki proizvajajo inpute za vse ostale industrijske panoge, drugo pa je značilno predvsem za nemško tradicionalno avtomobilsko panogo, ki je zaspala v razvoju in uvajanju električnih avtomobilov. K temu, kar navaja Bloomberg je treba dodati še nmeško energetsko politiko (Energiewende), ki je povzročila, da imajo nemška podjetja za več kot 60 % dražjo elektriko kot francoska.

V Bloombergu še pišejo, kako se ta nemški propad dogaja vsem pred očmi, iz dneva v dan, iz leta v leto. Ljudje pa samo letargično gledajo, kako nesposobni politiki ne naredijo ničesar, da bi trende zaustavili in obrnili. Krepijo se ekstremne stranke na levici in desnici, ki bodo nekoč prišle na oblast.

Najbolj zanimivo pri vsem je, da čeprav so tako jasno identificirani razlogi za nemški “razpad pri živem telesu”, nihče ne pove očitnega: (1) zaustavimo vojno v Ukrajino, vzamimo poceni ruski in plin in se odklopimo od 4-krat dražjega ameriškega), (2) zaženimo močno industrijsko politiko s spodbudami za ključne tehnologije, skopirajmo kitajske tehnološke rešitve pri e-avtomobilih in baterijah, povabimo ali prisilimo kitajska podjetja, da proizvajajo v Evropi po enakih pogojih kot naša podjetja na Kitajskem, in (3) ponovno zaženimo zaprte jedrske elektrarne, ukinimo subvencije za sončne in vetrne elektrarne in ta denar namenimo za gradnjo jedrskih elektrarn.

Kako nikomur ne pade na misel nekaj tako očitnega? Če te boli zob, greš k zobarju, da ti ga popravi, ne pa da greš na lepotno masažo.

______________

Germany is reaching a point of no return. Business leaders know it, the people in the country feel it, but politicians haven’t come up with answers.

That has set Europe’s largest economy on a path of decline that threatens to become irreversible.

Following five years of stagnation, Germany’s economy is now 5% smaller than it would have been if the pre-pandemic growth trend had been maintained.

More worryingly, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the bulk of the shortfall will be tough to recover, due to structural blows such as the loss of cheap Russian energy and Volkswagen AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG struggling to keep pace with China’s auto firms. The decline in national competitiveness means every household is worse off by about €2,500 ($2,600) a year.

After Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on Monday, snap elections offer a chance for a change of course, but the trend of gradual decay creates little sense of urgency. The risk is dull policy responses that lack the ambition needed to tackle underlying challenges.

“Germany doesn’t collapse overnight. That’s what makes this scenario so absolutely gut-wrenchingly terrifying,” said Amy Webb, founder and chief executive officer of Future Today Institute, which advises German companies on strategy. “It is a very slow, very protracted decline. Not of a company, not of a city, but of the entire country and Europe gets dragged down with it.”

What that looks like is Germany losing more of its energy-intensive manufacturing and exports sliding as unsettled companies rein in domestic investment. As living standards erode, voters cast around for someone to blame, and the social tensions drive away the foreign talent the country desperately needs. The toxic cocktail of caution and resentment would then ripple out across Europe.

…

What Our Economists Say:

“Germany’s problems won’t go away on their own. Retooling the economy for the future, improving productivity and tackling the causes of high energy costs urgently need the next government’s attention.”

— Jamie Rush, Chief European Economist

Vir: Bloomberg