Pri Mednarodni agenciji za energijo so sistematično narobe forsirali teorijo o “vrhu povpraševanja po premogu”, pri čemer so sistematično vsako leto ugotavljali, da ta vrh še ni prišel. No, zdaj vsaj ne napovedujejo več tega vrha v naslednjih letih, kar pa ne pomeni, da priznavajo napačnost svoje teorije. Kitajska porabi za 30 % več premoga kot vse ostale države skupaj in bo s tem nadaljevala, da bo lahko zagotovila dovolj električne energije za svojo rastočo industrijo (glejte spodnjo nit). Medtem ko se Evropa samouničuje s kuponi za CO2.

Koliko let potrebujejo največji tepci med politiki, da spoznajo svojo zmoto?

Consign coal to history? Forget it.

China pushed global coal demand to a record high in 2024, @IEA said in its coal flagship report.
The IEA has now ditched its “peak coal” theory and sees higher demand in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-18/we-re-burning-more-coal-than-ever-thanks-to-china?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter?sref=5dj0X2VO

The IEA estimates that global coal demand surged to an all-time high of 8,771 million metric tons this year, up 1% from 20232, as electricity demand rose faster than expected.

The IEA revised, too, its historical data, so the rise comes from a higher baseline.

The IEA is trying to paint an optimistic outlook about the future. But the numbers say otherwise.

In rose-tinted prose, the agency says that global coal demand could “plateau”. Well, that’s if you don’t mind that the plateau is uphill rather than fairly level.

The higher-for-longer represents a U-turn for the IEA.

In 2023, it said that the deployment of green energy was “likely to push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory,” adding: “This would imply that coal is likely to peak in 2023.”

Not anymore !!!

The extra consumption is truly shocking.

Let’s compare the forecast for 2026 published last year (8,344 million tons) to the one for the same year just published (8,847 million).

The difference (503 million) equals the combined annual use of the US-Japan.

The biggest problem is China. The country, worshiped by some green enthusiasts thanks to its embrace of electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels, is the world’s biggest coal user.

China consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together !!!

The IEA now forecast Chinese coal demand rising further from 2025 to 2027.

For Beijing, coal is energy security. It’s time to acknowledge that. And acknowledge that China’s promises to reduce its coal consumption any time soon just don’t stand up to scrutiny.

Flagging higher global coal demand isn’t cheerleading fossil-fuel consumption – it’s candidly conceding to reality. Policymakers should stop pretending as if the war against coal has been won. We’re still far from it.

The IEA has been calling peak coal demand for over a decade. It has been wrong multiple times flagging declining consumption in the horizon.

Considering that record of wrong calls, it would be prudent for the agency to err on the side of caution in the future. 

The annual IEA coal report: iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a1ee7b7…
And couple of columns on the issue from 2024:

Old King Coal Remains Omnipotent and Omnipresent (July): bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The Energy Transition Is Brought to You By Coal (Oct): bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Vir: Javier Blas, Bloomberg (via X)