Monthly Archives: november 2024

Did The Latest BRICS Summit Achieve Anything Of Tangible Significance At All?

1 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo Tags: , , , ,

Andrew Korybko

Over a week has passed since the latest BRICS Summit in Kazan so it’s possible to assess what exactly it achieved now that the dust has settled. The primary takeaway is the Kazan Declaration, which Director General of the prestigious Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Andrey Kortunov described as “a manifesto for the new world order”. His praise shouldn’t be taken lightly since he’s an archetypical realist who also earlier tempered expectations about what BRICS was capable of agreeing to.

Titled “What BRICS Cannot and What It Can Deliver”, Kortunov explained that: “BRICS cannot become a global economic integration project”; BRICS will not turn into a multilateral political or security alliance of an anti-Western nature”; BRICS is not likely to contribute a lot to resolving disputes between its members or disputes between its members and third parties”; and “BRICS will never become an analogue to G7.”

He then juxtaposed these assessments with his expectations that “BRICS can promote trade and investments among its members, as well as contribute to economic and social development of these members”; “BRICS could help to shape common non-Western approaches to global problems”; “BRICS is capable of contributing to the dialogue of civilizations”; and “BRICS can become an important source of ideas and proposals for UN, G20 and other universal bodies.”

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Evropa je mrtva

1 novembra, 2024 By in gospodarstvo

Evropska izpostava medija Politico je objavila zanimiv pogled njenega urednika Nicka Vinocura na Evropo – njeno relevantnost za ZDA in njeno strateško izpostavljenost ZDA. Ključna poanta članka je, da je vseeno, kdo bo zmagal na ameriških volitvah, saj je Evropa za ZDA postala nerelevantna. Evropa Ameriki ni konkurenčna, ne ogroža je v nobeni gospodarski dejavnosti, tehnoogiji, kulturi ali športu. Če nisi vojaško suveren in močan in če nisi gospodarsko in tehnološko konkurenčen, si temu primerno nepomemben.

V resnici na ljubo, je Evropa za Ameriko pomembna zgolj kot lokacija za njene vojaške baze z jedrskimi raketami, s čimer ZDA vzdržujejo strateško ravnovesje moči z Rusijo. Izven te funkcije je Evropa nerelevantna. Evropa je mrtva. Ne glede na to ali zmaga Harrisova ali Trump, se bo zveza Evrope z ZDA razvodenela, ker se je ameriški strateški interes preusmeril v Azijo, na pravega tekmeca Amerike. Članice EU pa se bodo dezintegrirale, vsaka zase bo iskala svoje strateške interese in zase zagotavljala svojo strateško varnost.

No, Trump lahko da temu le še dodatni pospešek.

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That’s not to say this election won’t affect Europe. One candidate is an admirer of Vladimir Putin who wants to impose 100 percent tariffs on European goods and vows to end the Ukraine war the day after his election. His reported threats to pull Washington out of NATO should be taken seriously because, this time around, Trump probably wouldn’t be surrounded by “Deep State” restrainers. Harris, by contrast, pledges continuity in the U.S. global leadership role and has a Europhile adviser, Phil Gordon, in whom Europe places high hopes.

But if you take a step back, the bigger picture is this: Europe just isn’t as important to Washington as it once was. Aging and shrinking, allergic to power politics, fractious and risk-averse, Europe increasingly elicits not fondness in many Americans but sneering disdain — a place good for holidays and not much more (see this characteristic tweet from a San Francisco influencer). It doesn’t help that the performance gap between the American and European economies is widening inexorably, to America’s advantage.

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