Gospodarski zaton in socialni kolaps Evrope je v tem trenutku morda še mogoče preprečiti. Predpogoj pa je, da bi se v Evropo vrnili razum, racionalni pogled na situacijo in posledična vojaška in politična osamosvojitev od ZDA in diverzifikacija gospodarskih odnosov (večja povezava z Evrazijo in državami globalnega juga).

Glenn Diesen:

I had a conversation with Jeffrey Sachs and Alexander Mercouris about the political changes in Europe. The optimism of the European project as a region of peace and prosperity is long gone. The objective had been to resolve conflicts on the continent peacefully and use collective bargaining power to establish greater economic and political independence. Instead, the continent is experiencing war, de-industrialisation, socio-economic and political instability, excessive dependence on the US, and growing irrelevance in the wider world. What went wrong and can the decline be reversed?

The rest of the world adjusts to the emerging multipolarity with a multivector foreign policy by diversifying economic connectivity to improve economic competitiveness and enhance political autonomy. In contrast, the Europeans have subordinated themselves completely to the US and thus suffer from economic decline and political subordination. Declining rationality is also a clear problem as the Europeans pursued policies towards Russia that they knew would put them on a collision course with Russia. Instead of pursuing course correction, the proxy war with Russia increased the security dependence on the US, which enabled Washington to impose bloc discipline. The recovery of Europe requires reversing the militarisation of dividing lines in Europe, and diversifying economic ties to avoid excessive dependence on any one state or region.

Objavljeni Spomini Angele Merkel so in bodo zanimivo branje. Glede na do sedaj objavljene navedbe sta se mi vtisnili v spomin predvsem dve. Prva je na temo nasprotovanja Merklove vključitvi Ukrajine v Nato, ker bi to privedlo do vojne v Ukrajini že bistveno prej. Druga pa se nanaša na ameriško nasprotovanje gradnji plinovoda Severni tok. Ameriška administracija je imela tukaj dva interesa. Prvi je bil, da se Nemčija ne naveže na Rusijo, drugi pa ekonomski interes, ker so želeli delati posel z izvozom ameriškega utekočinjenega plina v Evropo (ki je seveda bistveno dražji od ruskega).

I felt that the United States was mobilizing its formidable economic and financial resources to prevent the business ventures of other countries, even their allies. The United States was chiefly interested in its own economic. The United States was chiefly interested in its own economic interests, as it wanted to export to Europe LNG obtained through fracking.

Glavne ugotovitve wannabe finančnega guruja Raya Dalia (Bridgewater) so naslednje:

1. Trumpova avtoritarna “vladavina” in način oblikovanja ekonomskih politik spominja na tiste iz zgodnjih 1930. let (Mussolini, Hitler), kar sicer še ne pomeni, da je Trumpa treba enačiti s fašistom.
2. Trump se bo ukvarjal sam s seboj in se ne bo lotil ključnih ameriških problemov, ki so po njegovem izobraževanje in vzdržnost dolga.
3. Svetovna ureditev se bo popoloma spremenila, ker ZDA več ne bodo čutile, da morajo uveljavljati svetovni red in multilateralna pravila, ampak se bodo brutalno fokusirale na svoje interese.
4. To okolje je izjemno dobro za Kitajsko, ki bo s svojim “soft power” v tem času ekonomsko prevezela globalni Jug, kjer živio 85 % svetovnega prebivalstva.
5. Evropa je mrtva, šibka, polna lastnih problemov in nesposobna se braniti pred Rusijo brez ZDA, kaj šele, da bi se bojevala v tej globalni bitki (“Europe is weak, has its hands full with its own problems, and doesn’t have a dog in this fight, while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support.”).

Torej, glavni zmagovalci Trumpovega mandata in razpada svetovne ureditve, kot smo jo poznali, bodo ameriški lastniki kapitala in zgornjih 5 % prebivalstva (ki zasedajo najbolje plačana delovna mesta) in Kitajska, glavni loser pa bo Evropa, ki je itak že klinično mrtva.

Torej? A Evropa sploh ima mnenje o tem, če že kreativnega programa (za spopad s svojo nekonkurenčnostjo in nepomembnostjo) nima? Ali pa je UvdL še vedno v šoku in čaka na nova navodila njenega novega šefa?

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What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration

Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced, a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging. I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad, because accuracy is what’s most important for making decisions in the best possible way.

The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently, which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality, and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China, which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat. The most recent analogous period is the 1930s, when such an approach emerged in several countries.

The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval), will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr., who would radically reform the healthcare system, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. Many, many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump. They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.

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Zastrašujoče. Z eno raketo je mogoče zadeti 6 vojaških baz in znotraj vsake baze po 6 ciljev ali več. Zgolj na podlagi kinetične energije je mogoče prebiti armirane površine nekaj deset metrov globoko.

Zastrašujoče. Sploh, če pomislimo, da so si Rusi bili prisiljeni pomagati s čipi iz pralnih in pomivalnih strojev…

Če bi bil predsednik vlade Nemčije, Italije ali V. Britanije ali predsednik Francije, ne bi prav mirno spal.

Težko je verjeti, dokler ne slišiš iz njihovih lastnih ust. Vojna v Ukrajini je po besedah senatorja Grahama vojna za redke minerale (vredne nekaj tisoč milijard dolarjev) in najboljša naložba ZDA, ki v ej bojni ne bo izguvila nobenega vojaka.

Kaj pa Ukrajina in njeni ljudje? Ah, lahko so srečni, da se bojujejo za ameriške politične in gospodarske namene. Do zadnjega Ukrajinca.