Trumpova bum-bum diplomacija, kot se kaže v obrisih glede na izbrane osebke za ključne pozicije (glejte Bloombergov newsletter spodaj), je najbolje opisana z zgornjim naslovom. Ključni cilj Trumpa naj bi bil hitra umiritev “nestrateških” konfliktnih področij (Ukrajina, Rusija, Gaza, Iran), da bi se lahko posvetil sovražniku št. 1 – to je Kitajski. Kitajska je edina, ki zares ogroža globalno (gospodarsko, tehnološko in politično) hegemonijo ZDA.

K temu je treba dodati še obrise napovedane strategije glede zaustavtve vojne z Ukrajino, kot jo je skiciral Mike Waltz, najverjetnejši bodoči svetovalec za nacionalno varnost. Ta strategija naj bi izgledala takole:

1. v prvem koraku je treba stisniti Rusijo prek pritiska na Kitajsko in Indijo, da ne bi več kupovali ruskih energentov,
2. hkrati bi evropske države prenehale kupovati naftne derivate iz indijskih rafinerij (kjer predelujejo rusko nafto) in
3. hkrati bi ZDA začele prodajati večje količine utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina (LNG) v Evropo,
4. v drugem koraku bi Ukrajini “sneli lisice” in ji dovolili, da z ameriškimi, britanskimi in francoskimi raketami dolgega dosega začne raketirati cilje globoko na ruskem ozemlju.

Na ta način naj bi Trump Rusijo prisilili v pogajanja in hkrati dal bonbonček Ukrajini, da bo lažje pristala na pogajanja.

Že prejšnji teden pa je pricurljal obris predloga iz Trumpovega kroga glede bodoče mirovne rešitve za Ukrajino. Ta bi v grobem izgledala tako:

1. Razmejitev med Ukrajino in Rusijo se zamrzne vzdolž sedanje frontne linije,
2. Med frontno linijo in preostankom Ukrajine se oblikuje demilitarizirano območje,
3. Ukrajina pristane, da naslednjih 20 let ne bo prosila za vstop v Nato,
4. ZDA Ukrajini še naprej vojaško pomagajo, kar bi ji dalo neke vrste varnostne garancije.

No, zanimivo bo videti ruski in evropski odziv na te obrise predlogov. Pomembno pa je, da se pogovori o mirni rešitvi vojne sploh začnejo. Naj diplomacija namesto orožja poišče rešitev.

Toda, če bi vsebinsko komentiral te idejne skice, bi bil prvi komentar: Good luck with that.

Just days after he won a return to the White House, the outlines of Donald Trump’s foreign policy are becoming clear: squeeze Iran, support Israel, confront China.

The expected appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary of state and the naming of combat veteran Mike Waltz to the post of national security adviser and Elise Stefanik as US ambassador to the United Nations leave little room for doubt.

All three, along with Vice President-elect JD Vance, are sharp critics of Xi Jinping’s government in China — Rubio has been sanctioned twice by Beijing — with Waltz calling it the top threat to the US. Trump has vowed to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods that could decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.

Trump is likely to pressure Israel to wrap up its campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. But don’t expect him to echo the criticism of the Joe Biden administration when it comes to the civilian death toll.

Trump has told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” when it comes to Iran and its militant proxy groups. But support for a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran has probably waned among Gulf states that are trying to improve relations with Tehran.

Trump’s White House is almost certain to try to expand the Abraham Accords reached during his first administration that normalized ties between Israel and several Arab countries. Yet Saudi Arabia has suggested that for it to join them, there must be significant movement toward a Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, yesterday called the war in Gaza “genocide.”

So expect the new administration to seek quick ends to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine — Rubio supports negotiations that could result in Kyiv ceding occupied territory to the Russian invaders.

The ultimate goal is to zero in on enemy number 1: China.

Vir: Bloomberg