Poltična narativa vodilnih politikov v EU državah in v Evropski komisiji glede Kitajske se je povsem spremenila. Od spudbujanja sodelovanja pred enim desetletjem do sedanje narative, da “Evropa ima kitajski problem“. Da ima Evropa problem z neuravnoteženo trgovinsko menjavo in neenakimi konkurenčnimi pogoji.

“Europe has a China problem.”

These are not words you would have heard from a budding EU trade commissioner a decade ago, when cutting juicy deals with booming economies like China was the top line of the job description.

But in 2024, this might be the kind of rhetoric needed if you want to be handed the keys to the EU’s directorate of trade for the next five years.

“China is challenging us in such a fundamental way that it would be naive to deny that Europe has a China problem. Just read the reports of the Dutch intelligence agencies,” said Wopke Hoekstra, the ex-Dutch foreign minister, in a stump speech for a China-facing portfolio in the next European Commission.

The current climate commissioner went on to blame China for “derailing our economy”, in the sort of language it would be hard to imagine coming from Valdis Dombrovskis, the taciturn Latvian incumbent.

“That is unacceptable. We aim not to sever ties with China. But we will have to restore the balance. Equal rules for both parties, plain and simple. To achieve this, we will no longer just talk, but we also have to act, if competition continues to be unfair,” Hoekstra said.

Vir: SMCP

Toda Evropska unija je imela možnost, da odnose s Kitajsko uravnoteži. In natanko to je poskušala urediti z bilateralnim sporazumom “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” (CAI), ki je po besedah Evropske komisije “najbolj ambiciozen sporazum, ki ga je Kitajska kadarkoli sklenila” s tem, da je bistveno odprla svoj notranji trg podjetjem iz EU. Kitajska se je na primer strinjala z odpravo zahtev glede skupnih vlaganj, prisilnega prenosa tehnologij, kapitalskih omejitev in količinskih omejitev v številnih sektorjih, v katerih deluje večina podjetij EU na Kitajskem. Prav tako naj bi CAI zaščitil neposredne tuje naložbe EU na Kitajskem. V proizvodnem sektorju, kjer je polovica naaložb EU, naj bi Kitajska “izenačila odprtost EU”; kar je koncesija brez primera v kitajskih trgovinskih ali naložbenih sporazumih in ki velja za pomemben korak k liberalizaciji trga na Kitajskem.

Do sem je bilo vse prav. Pogajanja o CAI sporazumu med EK in Kitajsko so se začela leta 2013 in se končala leta 2020, ko naj bi prišlo do ratifikacije sporazuma v Evropskem parlamentu. Potem pa so se nenadoma začele težave. Menda zaradi “nesprejemljivega ravnanja” kitajskih oblasti do članov Evropskega parlamenta, Evropskega sveta itd. Wikipedia:

In March 2021, it was reported that there would be serious doubts about the approval of the deal in the European Parliament given China’s “unacceptable” behavior toward members of the parliament, the European Council‘s Political and Security Committee, and European think tanks.

Od kod te nenadne težave? No, potrebno je pogledati proti ZDA, ki jim evropsko zbliževanje s Kitajsko nikoli ni bilo všeč in so vložile precej napora v miniranje sporazuma z iniciranjem “Ujgurskega problema” oziroma problema z domnevnim kršenjem človekovih pravic ujgurskega prebivalstva v pokrajini Xinjiang. Arnaud Bertrand:

• This agreement, which was being negotiated since 2013, has always faced staunch opposition from the US because it was seen as “threatening US-Europe relations“.
  
• The US launched the Xinjiang “Uyghur genocide” narrative during the Trump administration
• Europe tried to ratify the deal on the sly right after the US elections, before the new Biden administration took over, kicking off a “firestorm of criticism” from both sides of the political spectrum in the US, calling this a “disgraceful betrayal” by Europe, which forced the EU to wait until the new administration took power.
• In a strange coincidence, in March 2021, straight after the Biden administration took over, in a joint action with the US, the EU imposed sanctions on four Chinese officials because they were linked to the so-called “Uyghur genocide”, knowing full well that this would invite Chinese retaliation.
• As expected China retaliated by sanctioning EU MPs, which immediately led all the US-friendly MPs in the EU to scream bloody murder: “how could they do this to us? This unprovoked aggression is absolutely unacceptable“. Political theater at its best…
• This led to the shelving of the CAI. Job done… An absolutely wonderful case study of the weaponization of “human rights”.

Torej najbolj ambiciozen gospodarski sporazum iz vidika danih koncesij, kar jih je Kitajska bila kdajkoli pripravljena dati, je pristal v predalu, ker so ga uspešno zminirali v Washingtonu.

Torej je na mestu vprašanje ali nima EU dejansko “problema z ZDA” in ne problema s Kitajsko. EU ima dejansko problem s svojo politično suverenostjo napram ZDA, saj brez kančka razmisleka  o lastnih interesih vedno sledi direktivam iz Washingtona. V lastno škodo.