Kot sem že nekajkrat pisal, sankcije proti Rusiji delujejo, vendar na perverzen način – negativno delujejo predvsem na tiste, ki so uvedli sankcije, in predvsem na evropske države. Zato, ker so bolj odvisne od uvoza ruskih energentov in ključnih surovin (med njimi predvsem umetnih gnojil) in od izvoza v Rusijo. Evrsko gospodarstvo se je zaradi sankcij znašlo najprej v energetski krizi, kar je zaradi subvencioniranja cen za gospodinjstva in podjetja načelo proračune evrskih držav in naredilo energetsko intenzivno industrijsko proizvodnjo v Evropi globalno nekonkurenčno. Hkrati se je močno zmanjšal izvoz v Rusijo – če je leta 2021 znašal še 89 milijard evrov, se je v 2022 zmanjšal na 55, v 2023 pa na 38 milijard evrov. Posledično je industrijska proizvodnja v Evropi upadla za 15 %, evrsko gospodarstvo stagnira (lani zgolj 0.5 % rast), Nemčija je bila lani v recesiji in bo tudi letos. Na drugi strani svetovno gospodarstvo raste – države v razvoju so lani in naj bi tudi letos dosegle rast okrog 4.5 %, Kitajska nad 5 %, ZDA pa okrog 2.5 %.

Torej Evropa se je s sankcijami ustrelila v obe koleni. Ali bolje rečeno – ZDA so EU prepričale v to, da se ustreli v obe koleni in “voditelji” EU držav so to tudi poslušno izvršili.

No, negativni učinek sankcij pa se kaže tudi na drugih področjih. Denimo na področju letalskega prometa. EU države so prepovedale polete v Rusijo, kar izkoriščajo ne-EU države, kot je denimo Srbija (od koder evropski poslovneži danes letijo, če letijo v Rusijo), Rusija pa je prepovedala prelet letal evropskih letalskih družb. Posledica je nekonkurenčnost poletov v Azijo zaradi daljše poti. Tako je British Airways pred dnevi susendiral lete v Peking, ker zaradi daljše poti ne more konkurirati kitajskim letalskim družbam, ki jih prepoved poletov skozi ruski zračni prostor ne tangira.

Sankcije torej vendarle delujejo, evropski voditelji si lahko čestitajo.

Spodaj je dober komentar na to temo.

In March 2022 I predicted some consequences of the sanctions imposed on Russia:

The first [map] shows the countries which banned Russian airplanes from their airspace. Russia in turn denied its airspace to operators from those countries. It will cost quite a bit for U.S. and EU airlines as their flight times and cost to and from Asia, which typically fly through Russian airspace, will now increase. Carriers from Asian countries will now easily out-compete U.S. and European airlines on these routes.

bigger

As British media reported yesterday:

British Airways is temporarily scrapping flights to Beijing until at least next year.From October to at least November 2025 the carrier will not fly to the capital of China, although flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue.

European carriers are not currently able to enter Russian airspace which makes flying to China more challenging as it takes a few hours longer than it used to.

Russia’s civil aviation authority introduced the restrictions in February 2022, in retaliation to a British ban on the country’s Aeroflot airline as part of sanctions for the war in Ukraine.

A spokesperson for British Airways said: “We will be pausing our route to Beijing from 26 October 2024, and we’re contacting any affected customers with rebooking options or to offer them a full refund. We continue to operate daily flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong.”

The route only resumed operations on the route in June 2023, following a three-year pause due to the coronavirus pandemic.

At the time, British Airways described London-Beijing as “one of our most important routes”. The airline did not provide a reason for the suspension.

It is one of many Western airlines avoiding Russian airspace, which is adding to their flight times, fuel costs and complexity over how they deploy crew and aircraft.

British Airways isn’t the only one.

A simple look on the map explains the issue:

biggerAs I continued on sanctions:

The second map shows those countries which enacted sanctions against Russia. The secondary effects of sanctions are likely to hurt these countries as much as they hurt Russia. The absence of African, Asian, Middle Eastern, Central and South American countries is quite telling.

It does not look like ‘the world’ or the ‘international community’ is backing the ‘west’.

biggerThe U.S. also sanctioned all imports of oil products from Russia. President Biden has blamed Russia for the price increase that will inevitably follow. I don’t believe that mid-term voters will accept that reasoning. European countries can not follow that step as their economies depend of imports of oil and gas from Russia and will continue to do so for years to come.

Which fits to this other recent headline:

French imports of Russia’s liquified natural gas surge, and Ukraine supporters seek a stop

Shipments of Russian liquified natural gas to France more than doubled the first half of this year, according to new analyses of trade data, at a time when Europe has tried to pull back from energy purchases that help finance the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.Europe has restricted oil imports from Russia, but natural gas is still allowed. And while companies in France are importing the most, one analysis found EU countries overall imported 7% more Russian LNG, natural gas that has been chilled and liquified for easier ocean transport, in the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile in Germany, which currently has a rather crazy government, industrial production is further declining while bankruptcies have reached a record height:

Germany, with its energy-intensive industry and shortage of raw materials, has been particularly affected by the rapid rise in energy prices. Large corporations such as BASF are closing factories because management no longer believes it can efficiently produce essential chemicals. There is a trend of deindustrialization.The volume of orders from German machine-building and engineering companies decreased by 12 percent in the first half of 2024, according to the industry association VDMA. year to year in real terms. Orders from Germany itself fell especially sharply – by 18 percent. Orders from foreign companies fell by 9 percent. Metallurgical corporations are also suffering, as demand for their products is also falling.

All this could be fixed with some sanity and the discarding of useless sanctions.

Vir: Moon of Alabama