Če je verjeti trditvam v pismu madžarskega predsednika vlade Viktorja Orbana evropskim voditeljem, kot poroča Financial Times, ima najverjetnejši bodoči predsednik ZDA Donald Trump jasen načrt za končanje vojne v Ukrajini. Ta načrt bi lahko strnili v dve točki:

Prvič, ZDA bodo še naprej vojaško podpirale Ukrajino, vendar le, če bo ukrajinsko vodstvo sedlo za pogajalsko mizo z Rusijo.

Drugič, ZDA želijo, da Evropa prevzame levji delež vojaške in finančne pomoči Ukrajini.

Kaj v tej konstelaciji novih razmerij preostane EU? Da še naprej vztraja pri dosedanji politiki Bidnove administracije glede ozemeljske integritete Ukrajine in da od zdaj naprej sama vojaško in finančno podpira vojno v Ukrajini, dokler se ukrajinsko vodstvo samo ne odloči za mirovna pogajanja? Ali pa da se priključi novi politiki Trumpove administracije?

Odgovor na zgornjo dilemo je jasen: Tudi če bi EU želela vztrajati pri “načelni drži” glede vojne v Ukrajini, je to jalovo, ker si politično neenotna, vojaško siromašno, finančno nebogljena in gospodarsko skrahirana EU ne more privoščiti prevzema vojaškega in finančnega bremena vojne v Ukrajini. EU nima orožja, ki bi ga lahko ponudila Ukrajini in nima od kje vzeti finančnih sredstev, da bi finančno držala nad vodo Ukrajino. EU je lahko bila do sedaj “načelna” zgolj zato, ker je sledila ameriškim direktivam. Čeprav so kumulativno evropske države Ukrajini “pomagale” celo bolj od ZDA, je šlo večinoma za finančno pomoč.

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Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate.

That prospect means the EU should reopen direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing.

Orbán also said in the letter that on the basis of his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the “general observation” was “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future”. Moscow has relied heavily on Beijing to prosecute the conflict.

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“We can expect no peace initiative coming from [Trump] until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Orbán wrote in his letter sent to European Council president Charles Michel and other EU leaders. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.”

That means the EU should anticipate the shift in US policy, Orbán said, and either embrace the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or take on more responsibility for funding Ukraine’s defence.

JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio who Trump on Monday selected as his running mate, used an opinion piece in the FT in February to call for Europe to take on a larger burden in supporting Ukraine.

Orbán wrote in his letter: “I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine.”

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“We have not had a sovereign and independent European strategy or political action plan up to now. I propose discussing whether the continuation of this policy is rational in the future.”

He told EU leaders: “We can find a window of opportunity with a strong moral and rational basis to begin a new chapter in our policy . . . [and] make an effort to decrease tensions and/or create the conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or start peace negotiations.”

Orbán’s description of Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine tallies with a policy paper on the conflict written by two allies of the former president who are expected to take senior national security roles in his administration if he wins November’s US election.

The plan by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz of the America First Policy Institute proposed that the US continue to strengthen Ukraine’s defences, but future military aid would require Kyiv to participate in peace talks with Russia.

Vir: Financial Times