Pred nocojšnjim prvim soočenjem med pretendentoma za nov predsedniški mandat, Josephom Bidnom in Donaldom Trumpom, pri demokratih gorijo vse rdeče lučke. Čeprav je ameriško gospodarstvo (kljub ali pa prav zaradi enormnega povečanja fiskalnega deficita in javnega dolga) v dokaj dobri kondiciji z rekordno nizko brezposelnostjo, pa večina vprašanih v anketah javnega mnenja meni, da gre ameriškemu gospodarstvu zelo slabo, da je brezposelnost visoka, kapitalski trgi pa v razsulu. Ključni razlog za to razhajanje med podatki in sentimenti naj bi bila pretekla visoka inflacija. Visoka inflacija naj bi povsem distorzirala percepcijo volilcev. In za to percepcijo slabega stanja volilci krivijo aktualnega predsednika Bidena.

Biden se torej v soočenju (če bo sploh sposoben slediti diskusiji in obdržati fokus, kot se bojijo v demokratskem štabu) ne bo mogel sklicevati na dobro gospodarsko situacijo (na Clintonovo »It’s the economy, stupid!«). Zatorej mu svetovalci svetujejo naj se drži piarja in poosebljanja zaslug za vse ukrepe.

Bojim pa se, da Bidnu ne more nič pomagati k političnemu preživetju. (Glede na zdravstveno oziroma mentalno stanje mu resnici na ljubo tudi politično preživetje ne bi pomagalo. Dopuščam pa, da je v ozadju načrt z ustreznejšim podpredsednikom, ki bi Bidena zamenjal takoj v začetku mandata, ko Biden več ne bi bil opravilno sposoben) Pa tudi zaslužil si ga Biden ne bi glede na dizaster v zunanji politiki (podpihovanje vojne v Ukrajini in Palestini, iniciranje hladne vojne s Kitajsko, destabilizacija sveta z destruktivno zunanjo politiko).

Last year, the Dutch central bank launched a study into how inflation shapes sentiment. The results should be chilling for US President Joe Biden, as he prepares for the upcoming presidential debate and election campaign.

What Dutch economists determined is that not only do consumers — aka voters — think it is the job of government not central banks to deliver price stability, but when prices swing wildly this cuts confidence in all institutions. As with a romantic relationship, once trust is broken it is painfully hard to restore.

Sadly, the Federal Reserve has not (to my knowledge) dared to replicate this research. Thus we cannot know whether American voters are exactly the same. But I suspect they are — and would urge the White House to take note.

Biden’s team is haunted by a peculiar paradox. If you look at opinion polls, you would presume that the US economy is imploding. A Guardian-Harris survey last month shows that 56 per cent of voters think the country is in recession, 49 per cent think that the stock market has fallen this year and 49 per cent think unemployment is at record-high levels. Ouch.

Unsurprisingly, that leaves only 32 per cent of voters who trust Biden to run the economy, compared to 46 per cent who trust Donald Trump, according to an Ipsos poll. This is ominous given that 88 per cent also cite the economy as the top factor influencing their votes.

But hard US economic data tells a completely different tale. Yes, Biden has presided over rising national debt and a temporary surge in inflation. But debt jumped by a similar amount under Trump. And the sharp rise in inflation was seen across the western world since it mostly reflected Covid-era supply chain shocks and war in Ukraine. In any case, inflation has tumbled this year.

Meanwhile, unemployment is at its lowest level for 50 years, wage growth is strong, particularly among lower-paid workers and manufacturing investment is surging at record high rates, partly due to the Inflation Reduction Act. Even more remarkable, four-fifths of IRA-linked investment is occurring in red not blue states. A similar proportion is in communities with below average educational scores, as Heather Boushey, economic adviser to the White House, told the Aspen Ideas festival this week.

…

So is there anything the White House can do (other than pray for lower oil prices)? Last week, Boushey convened a workshop of mostly Biden supporters, where I heard many ideas tossed around: raise Biden’s social media presence; work with local influencers to tell personal stories about the IRA boom; embrace simple populist — not technocratic — messaging to match Trump.

A case in point: back in 2020, when Trump’s White House distributed stimulus checks to offset the Covid slump, Trump insisted they carried his signature. These branded the handouts with his name in an easy-to-remember manner for voters. When Biden’s White House delivered its own largesse to consumers, he did not follow suit. Big mistake.

Maybe the White House can now rectify this. Janet Yellen, Treasury secretary, is striking a more populist tone. But it will be an uphill, near-impossible fight and one that calls for psychologists and anthropologists, as well as economists.

Vir: Financial Times