Morda se je komu Macronova poteza, ko je po porazu lastne stranke na evropskih volitvah razpustil parlament in razpisal predčasne volitve, zdela dobra. Toda kdor je stavil na preobrnitev trendov, se je uštel, saj je zanemaril vztrajne politične trende glede naraščajočega nazadovoljstva francoskih volilcev s političnim vodstvom. Zadnje ankete kažejo absolutno premoč skrajno desne stranke Le Penove (RN) ter zelo leve stanke Ljudske fronte.

Če se je Macron po porazu na evropskih volitvah zbal, da bi imel težave z obvladovanjem vlade, se mora po teh predčasnih volitvah bati, ali bo sploh lahko politično preživel v primeru visokega poraza.

Hkrati pa bi prevzem vlade s strani stranke Le Penove lahko ogrozil možnosti ponovne izvolitve sedanje predsednice Evropske komisije Ursule von der Leyen.

Just over a week ago, Emmanuel Macron was wondering how to respond to an embarrassing, but non-fatal, drubbing in the European Parliament elections. Today, the French president is contemplating another setback which looks like costing him control of the domestic legislature.

That would snuff out any chances of enacting additional economic reforms and could even cut short his second term, which still has three years to run.

Macron wasn’t the only leader given a kicking by his voters in the European Union ballot. Olaf Scholz in Germany suffered a defeat that was almost as bad. Like Scholz, Macron had the option to hunker down, ride out his moment of unpopularity, and bet that events might break in his favor.

A worst-case scenario would have seen him govern until 2027 with an awkward but manageable control over parliament, allowing him to push through key measures by cutting deals with different parties.

But that’s not Macron’s style.

“This is a situation I cannot accept,” he said in a June 9 address to the nation, as he announced he was dissolving parliament and calling a snap election that begins June 30.

As well as unsettling investors in the EU’s second-biggest economy, the president’s gamble led Paris to lose its spot as Europe’s biggest equity market to London, less than two years after winning that title from the UK capital.

Macron is counting on being able to change voters’ minds in a matter of weeks and emerge from the election with his authority restored.

But the most likely outcome is that his parliamentary caucus will be decimated and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will emerge as the strongest force.

And the worst case? Macron has insisted he won’t quit, regardless of the result. But if it’s really bad, he may have to reconsider.

Vir: Bloomberg