Prepoved izvoza naprednih čipov in tehnologije za njihovo proizvodnjo v Kitajsko se je po pričakovanju pokazala kot kontraproduktivna. Po eni strani ameriški proizvajalci čipov izgubljajo največji svetovni trg, na drugi strani pa sankcije silijo kitajska podjetja v lasten razvoj čipov in orodij za njihovo proizvodnjo. In ko se Kitajska usmeri v neko smer, jo težko kaj zaustavi. No, kitajska podjetja so že blizu, da bodo dohitela tajvanska podjetja pri najbolj naprednih čipih (SMIC je že pri 5 nm čipih in Huawei je že vložil patentno zaščito za orodja za izdelovanje 3 nm čipov).

At the Computex International Computer Show in Taipei, Pat Gelsinger, the CEO of Intel said that that if the U.S. suppression of China’s chip industry is too harsh, there is a risk of backfiring. “If the restrictions are too strict, then China will have to produce its own chips.”, Well China is already producing its own Chips!

He went on to say that Intel hopes to supply as many chips as possible to mainland China.

The U.S sanctions were meant to stop China from advancing their chip technology below 14nm, however recent news has suggested that Huawei have filed patents for a method that allows production of 3nm semiconductors. It has also been reported that Huawe’s Ascend 910B is around 10% faster in AI workloads than Nvidia’s H20 chip, specifically designed for the Chinese market to get around sanctions, forcing Nvidia to lower it’s prices to stimulate demand.

Nvidia sales previously accounted for between 20% and 25% of it’s data centre revenue, however since the latest U.S chip export restrictions came into effect in October 2023, Nvidia’s business in China has been severely limited. In a recent earnings call Nvidia acknowledged that the company’s sales in China Fell ‘Significantly’ in the first quarter of 2024.

Now before you all start jumping in and saying yields on these 7nm, 5nm & possibly 3nm semiconductors are low etc etc, what you need to understand is that China takes a long term view, and acts very strategically, unlike the knee jerk policy of the U.S. I am quite sure that sometime over the next decade or sooner, China will master Chip manufacturing technology and equal, if not surpass the U.S. This current phase is just a stepping stone for them.

Semiconductor Independence is a key policy for China and the Chinese people, and a huge amount of resource will be put behind it. Once U.S companies have lost the Chinese market, which happens to be the biggest market in the world for semiconductors, they will never get it back. Where then will the U.S sell all of these semiconductors from the TSMC plants that will cost 30% to 40% more?

And remember, Huawei are soon to open their Shanghai R&D centre, staffing it with 30,000 engineers, and there will be a big focus on Semiconductor design and manufacture, It’s really only a matter of time…

Vir: Barrett