John Mearsheimer: Zelenski v Švici išče fantomski mir

1 junija, 2024 By in gospodarstvo

Kot smo že navajeni, izjemno lucidni komentar Johna Mearsheimerja, tokrat o “mirovni konferenci o Ukrajini” v Švici, na katero ni bila povabljena ena izmed obeh strani v vojni. Mearsheimer seveda pravi, da je prav zaradi tega konferenca izguba časa:

The first thing you want to remember is that Putin has a triple-digit IQ, and anybody with a triple-digit IQ can quickly figure out that this all makes no sense.

So, I think that Putin is probably going to spend maybe one, two, or three minutes thinking about this and then spend the rest of his time dealing with serious issues like winning the war.

The idea that this peace conference is going to affect the course of this conflict between Ukraine and Russia is not a serious argument.

This is the kind of nonsense that the West engages in from time to time because it’s so desperate to find some sort of way to win this war.

But the fact is, there is no way at this point in time to win this war.

Putin has never expressed any interest in conquering all of Ukraine, much less conquering other countries—this is a figment of the West’s imagination.

It’s stereotypical threat inflation, something that the Americans are especially good at.

What we’re trying to do is portray him as an aggressor who has to be stopped in Ukraine because if he’s not stopped in Ukraine, he’ll be on the Dunkirk beaches in a couple of weeks time.

This is what we’re trying to do.

This is not a serious argument.

He has no interest in going to Dunkirk; he has no interest in conquering all of Ukraine, and nobody can point to any evidence that shows he is interested in doing that or any evidence that he has the military capability to do it.

The key issue here is whether we can work out some sort of meaningful settlement to this conflict now.

If you’re going to get a meaningful settlement, you have to understand that Putin is in the driver’s seat, and he is going to get almost all of what he wants.

The only hope is that Ukraine can work out some sort of arrangement with the West where it convinces Putin that Ukraine is interested in being neutral—not in NATO.

I’m sure that Putin is willing to talk about that possibility.

I’m sure he’d be willing to sit down again and talk to Zelensky or through an intermediary.

I’m sure he’d do that.

But the question is, can you get a settlement?

Putin is not going to agree to any settlement unless it’s one that is basically on his terms, and that’s just a simple fact.