Učinek El Niña (topla faza El Niño Južne oscilacije (ENSO) s segrevanjem morja v tropskem delu Pacifika) naj bi v letu 2023 pripomogel k dvigu globalne temperature za 0.65°C.
There's really no mystery why 2023 was so much warmer than 2022.
However, the media narrative is that scientists are baffled and dumbfounded.🤔
Indeed, it seems none bothered (few are capable) to calculate a simple difference map between April-Dec 2023 minus April – Dec 2022… pic.twitter.com/3JE2kuLW0Q
El Niño (‘The Boy’) is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that marks the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date Line and 120°W), including the area off the west coast of South America. The ENSO is the cycle of warm and cold sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
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Originally, the term El Niño applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador at about Christmas time.[9] However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Niña (“The Girl” in Spanish) is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern.
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El Niño is the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. It is the warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.[10][11] This warming causes a shift in the atmospheric circulation with rainfall becoming reduced over Indonesia, India and northern Australia, while rainfall and tropical cyclone formation increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean.[12] The low-level surface trade winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, either weaken or start blowing from the other direction.[11]
It is believed that El Niño has occurred for thousands of years.[13] For example, it is thought that El Niño affected the Moche in modern-day Peru. Scientists have also found chemical signatures of warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall caused by El Niño in coral specimens that are around 13,000 years old.[14] Around 1525, when Francisco Pizarro made landfall in Peru, he noted rainfall in the deserts, the first written record of the impacts of El Niño.[14] Modern day research and reanalysis techniques have managed to find at least 26 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record.[15][16][17]
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he United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) looks at the sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, the tropical Pacific atmosphere and forecasts that NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index will equal or exceed +.5 °C (0.90 °F) for several seasons in a row.[20] However, the Japan Meteorological Agency declares that an El Niño event has started when the average five month sea surface temperature deviation for the Niño 3 region, is over 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) warmer for six consecutive months or longer.[21] The Peruvian government declares that a coastal El Niño is under way if the sea surface temperature deviation in the Niño 1+2 regions equal or exceed 0.4 °C (0.72 °F) for at least three months.
Pogostost El Niña
Timeline of El Niño episodes between 1900 and 2023.[15][16]
El Niño events are thought to have been occurring for thousands of years.[13] For example, it is thought that El Niño affected the Moche in modern-day Peru, who sacrificed humans in order to try to prevent the rains.[22]
It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record.[15][16] Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16,[15] 2018–19,[23][24][25] and 2023–24.[26][27]
Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2014–16, and 2023–24.[28][29][30]
Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years.[31] The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño “conditions”; when its duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño “episode”.[32]
During strong El Niño episodes, a secondary peak in sea surface temperature across the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sometimes follows the initial peak.[33]
JeEl Niño povezan z globalnim segrevanjem?
Odvisno od pogostosti ekstremnih El Niño dogodkov oziroma od pogostosti nastopa zelo toplih faz (El Niño) in zelo hladnih faz tega procesa (El Niña). Ena zadnjih študij (CSIRO, 2023), je pokazala, da so podnebne spremembe morda za dvakrat povečale verjetnost močnih vročih faz (El Niño) in za devetkrat verjetnost močnih hladnih faz (La Niña). Napovedi za naprej so negotove, ker različni modeli dajejo različne napovedi.
There is no consensus on whether climate change will have any influence on the strength or duration of El Niño events, as research alternately supports El Niño events becoming stronger and weaker, longer and shorter.[34][35] However, recent scholarship has found that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events.[36][37][38]
Colored bars show how El Niño years (red, regional warming) and La Niña years (blue, regional cooling) relate to overall global warming. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation has been linked to variability in longer-term global average temperature increase.
El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling.[40] Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on decadal timescales.[41] Over the last several decades, the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased,[42] although observation of ENSO for much longer is needed to detect robust changes.[43]
The studies of historical data show the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, is shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend,[44] the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.[45] A study published in 2023 by CSIRO researchers found that climate change may have increased by two times the likelihood of strong El Niño events and nine times the likelihood of strong La Niña events.[46][47] The study claims it found a consensus between different models and experiments.[48]
Future trends in ENSO are uncertain[49] as different models make different predictions.[50][51] It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become weaker.[52] It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other.[53] More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question. The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth’s climate[54] and, under the global warming, can enhance or alternate regional climate extreme events through a strengthened teleconnection.[55] For example, an increase in the frequency and magnitude of El Niño events have triggered warmer than usual temperatures over the Indian Ocean, by modulating the Walker circulation.[56] This has resulted in a rapid warming of the Indian Ocean, and consequently a weakening of the Asian Monsoon.[57]
Colored bars show how El Niño years (red, regional warming) and La Niña years (blue, regional cooling) relate to overall global warming. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation has been linked to variability in longer-term global average temperature increase.
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