The European Commission and the IMF have admitted their errors – not only the inaccurate macroeconomic forecasts on which the Greek program was based, but also the decision not to account for social sustainability – and have acknowledged that the program has not produced the expected results. Yet, for some reason, Greece’s creditors refuse to negotiate with the new government (which enjoys strong domestic support) to develop a new program that incorporates debt relief, a lower fiscal surplus, and structural reforms that support growth and promote social cohesion. This must not continue.
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Yet Greece’s creditors have continued to ignore these developments. This is clearly not sustainable – a point that former Director of the International Monetary Fund’s Europe Department Reza Moghadam recognized when he recently called for writing off half of Greece’s debt, provided an agreement can be reached on credible growth-enhancing structural reforms.
Social sustainability is essential for long-term economic success. A country cannot prosper if its educational system lacks the resources and capacity to prepare its children to thrive in the digital economy. Likewise, a reform program cannot be implemented if inequality, poverty, and social frustration strengthen extremist political parties, such as Greece’s overtly fascist Golden Dawn party or France’s far-right, anti-Europe National Front, which now boasts 25% electoral support.
When times are tough, immigrants and minorities become easy targets. As Joseph Stiglitz recently pointed out, it is unlikely that Hitler would have come to power in Germany if the unemployment rate was not 30% at the time. It does not help when some of those trapped in the poor ghettos surrounding major cities – however small a minority – become tempted by violence and fall prey to terrorist recruiters.
Regardless of what today’s corporate profit reports and stock indices may show, a country cannot achieve inclusive, sustainable success – in economic or human terms – if these fundamental social issues are not adequately addressed. Of course, fiscal caution cannot be abandoned; after all, if governments or the private sector were to spend borrowed or newly minted money freely, the result would simply be more crises, which would hurt the poor most. But social sustainability must be an integral part of a country’s economic program, not an afterthought.
Vir: Kemal Dervis, Project Syndicate