Grčija ni tako zelo prepuščena na milost in nemilost državam kreditodajalkam in ECB, kot se zdi. Kot pravi John Cochrane, ji v primeru, da ji ostale države ne odobrijo reprogramiranja dolgov pod manj strogimi pogoji, ECB pa popolnoma zapre dostop do likvidnosti grškim bankam, ostane opcija izdaje bonov, torej dolžniških vrednostnih papirjev. Če bi te (elektronske ali fizične) “papirje” grška vlada uporabljala za izplačilo plač in socialnih transferjev ter sprejemala kot plačilno sredstvo pri plačevanju davkov in če bi jih sprejemale banke in trgovine kot zakonito plačilno sredstvo, in če bi postale trajne (brez dospetja), bi s tem Grčija de facto uvedla paralelno valuto. Drugače rečeno, ne bi ji bilo treba izstopiti iz evra, čeprav bi de facto bankrotirala v odnosu do držav upnic.

To seveda ni neka “first best” opcija, ampak le ukrep v skrajni sili. To Grkov ne more rešiti pred ključnim problemom, ki ga imajo sami s seboj, in sicer da imajo kronično nekonkurenčno gospodarstvo, da kronično trošijo več, kot ustvarijo in da se kronično izogibajo plačevanju davkov. Lahko pa jim kupi nekaj časa, da nova vlada naredi natančno to (začne reševati problem), če ji tega časa že nočejo dati Bruselj, Berlin in Frankfurt.

O takšnem predlogu je skoraj dve leti nazaj razpravljal že tudi Črt Jakhel – kot o realni opciji za Slovenijo in ostale “južne” države v času, ko imajo “severnjaki” pretrdo valuto.

Greece can print up small-denomination zero-coupon bearer bonds, essentially IOUs. They say “The Greek government will pay the bearer 1 euro on Jan 1 2016.” Greece can roll them over annually, like other debt. Mostly, they would exist as electronic book entries in bank accounts, but Greece can print up physical notes too.

Who will buy? Most of Greece’s spending is transfer payments, to pensioners, health care, government workers, and so on. Greece can pay all of these with IOUS. It can “recapitalize” or lend to banks with these.

Sure, they’ll trade at a discount. Probably a hefty discount. If Greece accepted the IOUs at face value for tax payments, however, the discount might not be that large. Mostly, the discount would reflect risks that Greece either change its mind about accepting its own debt for tax payments, or that it would suspend the roll over, essentially defaulting on this new class of debt.

Yes, this proposal amounts to creating a separate or dual currency, while staying on the euro. That is exactly the point. Not only does a country in default not need to change currencies, in modern financial markets, a country doesn’t even need the right to print money in order to, well, print money! Bonds are money these days. There’s the Drachma conversion, devaluation and inflation so many commenters desire, can happen (the latter when promises are inevitably broken) all without leaving the Euro.

I gather California did something similar recently, paying bills with transferable IOUS and thus avoiding the prohibition on states printing money.

Vir: John Cochrane