Črt Kostevc

Novost na finančnih trgih so obveznice z negativno obrestno mero. To je negativno nominalno obrestno mero, za vse tiste, ki vas to spominja na Japonsko v 90ih letih prejšnjega stoletja ali pa jugoslovanske epizode hiperinflacije. Tisto so bile vseeno pozitivne nominalne obrestne mere na kredite. Tokrat je drugače. Tokrat so negativne že nominalne obrestne mere na obveznice nekaterih držav (Danska, Švica, Nemčija) in celo podjetij (Nestle, Shell). Ob izdaji obveznic torej velja obljuba, da vrnete manj kot ste si nekaj let prej sposodili. Seveda je hec v nadvse čudni makroekonomski situaciji in presežnem povpraševanju po kvalitetnih (varnih) obveznicah in dejstvu, da se za določene valute pričakuje močna apreciacija proti evru (krona, frank).

Če kdaj, je danes pravi čas za države, da refinancirajo svoje dolgove ali da najamejo nove za denimo javne investicije v infrastrukturo itd.

In my experience, ordinary people are not especially excited about this. But among finance and economic types, I promise you that it’s a huge deal — the economics equivalent of stumbling into a huge scientific discovery entirely by accident.

Indeed, the interest rate situation in Europe is so strange that until quite recently, it was thought to be entirely impossible. There was a lot of economic theory built around the problem of the Zero Lower Bound — the impossibility of sustained negative interest rates. Some economists wanted to eliminate paper money to eliminate the lower bound problem. Paul Krugman wrote a lot of columns about it. One of them said “the zero lower bound isn’t a theory, it’s a fact, and it’s a fact that we’ve been facing for five years now.”