Z ozirom na ujetost v recesijo in deflacijo ter nesposobnost rešitve iz te luknje tudi s pomočjo kvantitativnega sproščanja (QE) John Muellbauer iz Oxford University predlaga “QE za ljudi” namesto QE za bogate. Po domače rečeno, predlaga, da ECB razdeli helikopterski denar vsakemu prebivalcu v evro območju. Predlog je preprost: namesto da bi odkupovala korporativne in državne obveznice, naj bi ECB odprla poseben račun za vsega odraslega prebivalca evroobmočja in vsakomur na račun nakazala neko vsoto denarja. Če bi vsakemu posamezniku ECB nakazala 500 € in bi ta porabil samo četrtino tega za dodatne nakupe, bi to dvignilo potrošnjo za 34 mlr. € oziroma za 1.4% BDP. Z dodatnimi davki iz naslova povečanega trošenja pa bi lahko vlade znižale deficite in javni dolg.

Celotni strošek operacije bi bil 150 mlr. €, kar je slaba sedmina tega, za kolikor namerava ECB izdati primarnega denarja za odkupe obveznic (1,000 mlr. €). Ali drugače rečeno – ECB bi lahko, vkolikor bi bilo potrebno, skoraj sedem let učinkovito spodbujala rast namesto neučinkovitega metanja denarja za odkupe obveznic.

Predlog nikakor ni neumen in tudi ne neizvedljiv.

Furthermore, US-style QE, in particular, tends to have adverse distributional implications, because it channels more money toward the wealthy, who have a lower propensity to spend, without providing much to the poorer people who would use it to consume more. In the eurozone, the distribution issue is especially complex, given that institutional differences between countries can give the impression of discrimination among them.

Clearly, the ECB must develop a strategy that works in the eurozone’s unique system, instead of continuing to follow the Fed’s lead. Such a strategy should be based on Friedman’s assertion that “helicopter drops” – printing large sums of money and distributing it to the public – can always stimulate the economy and combat deflation. But, in order to maximize the impact of such an operation, the ECB would also have to find a way to ensure fair distribution.

One simple solution would be to distribute the funds to governments, which could then decide how best to spend them in their countries. But the eurozone’s rule against using the ECB to finance government spending bars this approach.

A more feasible option, therefore, would be to provide all workers and pensioners with social-security numbers (or the local equivalent) with a payment from the ECB, which governments would merely assist in distributing. Another alternative would be to use the electoral register, a public database that the ECB could use independently of governments.

Of the roughly 275 million adults with social-security numbers in the eurozone, some 90% are on the electoral register. Extrapolating from America’s experience in 2001, when a $300 per person social-security rebate boosted spending by about 25% of the total amount distributed, a €500 ($640) check from the ECB could increase spending by about €34 billion, or 1.4% of GDP. The extra tax revenue that such a rebate would produce would reduce government deficits significantly.

Beyond lifting the eurozone economy out of deflation, such an initiative would have massive political benefits, as it would reduce resentment toward European institutions, especially in struggling countries like Greece and Portugal, where an extra €500 would have a particularly strong impact on spending. In this way, the ECB could prove to disgruntled citizens and investors that it is serious about meeting its inflation target, and even help to stem the rise of nationalist parties.

To be sure, some countries – especially Germany – are likely to resist this approach by marshaling arguments about prudence and responsibility. But the fact is that “helicopter money” would work – and nothing in eurozone law prohibits it.

After years of austerity, infighting, and unemployment, it is time to implement a QE program that delivers what Europe needs.

Vir: John Muellbauer, Project Syndicate