Nobelovec Robert Schiller se v Project Syndicate sprašuje natanko to, kar se tudi jaz in nekateri kolegi sprašujemo že nekaj časa: se lahko sedanje že 6 let trajajoče stanje gospodarske depresije, socialne mizerije in brezupa prelevi v eksplozijo socialnih, nacionalnih in vojaških konfliktov, kot se je zgodilo leta 1937?

Tudi takrat so bile prevladujoče teme “sekularna stagnacija” (obet dolge stagnacije), prenizko povpraševanje in previsoko varčevanje ter brezup dolgoročno brezposelnih. Iz tistega virulentnega okolja socialne mizerije in brezupa so izbruhnile socialne frustracije, nacionalizmi in meddržavne napetosti. V takšnem virulentnem gojišču je Škotska lahko danes sprožilec razpada EU. Sedanji rusko-ukrajinski konflikt z evropskimi in ameriškimi sankcijami je lahko sprožilec spopada velikih razsežnosti, 3. vojne.

Edini način, da se temu izognemo, je, kot pravi tudi Schiller, da spodbudimo gospodarsko rast. Samo v času rasti je služb dovolj in večina ljudi dobi občutek, da jim gre na bolje. In to je ključno za povratek optimizma in izognitev osebnim in nacionalnim frustracijam ter 3. vojni.

Keynesova knjiga “Splošna teorija …”, ki je izšla leta 1936, je pokazala pot k zagonu gospodarske rasti in stabilizaciji. Toda bila je prepozna, da bi preprečila 2. svetovno vojno. Danes poznamo recepte, pa vendar evropske države te recepte ignorirajo. Je tudi danes že prepozno?

The depression that followed the stock-market crash of 1929 took a turn for the worse eight years later, and recovery came only with the enormous economic stimulus provided by World War II, a conflict that cost more than 60 million lives. By the time recovery finally arrived, much of Europe and Asia lay in ruins.

The current world situation is not nearly so dire, but there are parallels, particularly to 1937. Now, as then, people have been disappointed for a long time, and many are despairing. They are becoming more fearful for their long-term economic future. And such fears can have severe consequences.

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The despair felt after 1937 led to the emergence of similar new terms then, too. “Secular stagnation,” referring to long-term economic malaise, is one example. The word secular comes from the Latin saeculum, meaning a generation or a century. The word stagnation suggests a swamp, implying a breeding ground for virulent dangers. In the late 1930s, people were also worrying about discontent in Europe, which had already powered the rise of Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini.

The other term that suddenly became prominent around 1937 was “underconsumptionism” – the theory that fearful people may want to save too much for difficult times ahead. Moreover, the amount of saving that people desire exceeds the available investment opportunities. As a result, the desire to save will not add to aggregate saving to start new businesses, construct and sell new buildings, and so forth. Though investors may bid up prices of existing capital assets, their attempts to save only slow down the economy.

“Secular stagnation” and “underconsumptionism” are terms that betray an underlying pessimism, which, by discouraging spending, not only reinforces a weak economy, but also generates anger, intolerance, and a potential for violence.

In his magnum opus The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, Benjamin M. Friedman showed many examples of declining economic growth giving rise – with variable and sometimes long lags – to intolerance, aggressive nationalism, and war. He concluded that, “The value of a rising standard of living lies not just in the concrete improvements it brings to how individuals live but in how it shapes the social, political, and ultimately the moral character of a people.”

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The downside of the sanctions imposed against Russia for its behavior in eastern Ukraine is that they may produce a recession throughout Europe and beyond. That will leave the world with unhappy Russians, unhappy Ukrainians, and unhappy Europeans whose sense of confidence and support for peaceful democratic institutions will weaken.

Vir: Robert Schiller, Project Syndicate